fabian tract 408 EEC problems for British agriculture contents 1 introduction 1 2 results of adopting the CAP in the United Kingdom 7 3 negotiations with the EEC on agriculture 16 4 criticisms of the common agricultural policy 20 5 the CAP and Britain's agricultural problems 25 6 conclusion 28 this pamphlet, like all publications of the Fabian Society, represents not the collective view of the Society but only the view of the individual who prepared it. The responsibility of the Society is limited to approving the publications which it issues as worthy of consideration within the Labour movement. Fabian Society, 11 Dartmouth Street, London SW1. July 1971 SBN 7163 0408 2 introduction In the confused debate about the United Kingdom's application for entry into the European Economic Community (EEC), a great deal has been said about the agricultural problem. The discussion has been concentrated on three issues : first, how the balance of payments would be affected by British acceptance of the common agricultural policy (CAP) ; second, how the CAP ·should be altered when the UK can influence agricultural policy as a member of the EEC; third, the effects of British membership on world agricultural trade. Since complete acceptance of the CAP had already been conceded by the government before .the negotiations began, the effects on British agriculture of adopting the CAP have not been analysed in great detail, except in farming circles. Most economists have taken the line that on balance there could be a slight increase in net farm income but that some types of agricultural production would fare better than others. This assessment is echoed in the government's two white papers (Cmnd 3274 of 1967 ; Cmnd 4289 of 1970). The general conclusion of most of the experts who have deigned to look at the subject is that since British farms are generally much bigger and more efficient than their continental counter parts, this advantage would stand them in good stead when facing competition from Europe. Table 1 shows the trend towards fewer and larger agricultural holdings in Great Britain. It should be noted that similar trends emerge if the criterion of standard man days is used. Table 2 shows the trend towards concentration by type of enterprise. Similar gains, varying in degree, have occurred in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The average size of British farms is more than double that of EEC farms. Figures of gross product per person employed in agriculture, fisheries and forestryshow that the British figure was £1,665 in 1969 compared with an EEC average of £1,000 (Hansard 10/5/1971 c.42). The figures are subject to certain q ualifications but do provide a broad indication of relative output per person. The brushing aside of agriculture as a matter of little or no account in the negotiations, is typical of the low public esteem for British agriculture and its achievements. In spite of publicity by the National Farmers' Unions (NFU), agriculture is still seen as a sideshow, when compared with the rest of industry. There are some well informed, technical farming programmes on radio and television, but general comment about agriculture and its problems TABIJE 1 AGRICULTURAL HOLDINGS IN GREAT BRITAIN total holdi ngs holdings up to 50 acres percentage of total holdings over 300 percentage of total acres '1951* 1955 451.800 442.500 290,20() 281,500 64.2 63.6 14.700 15.200 3.2 3.4 1960 406.200 249.300 61.4 16,500 4.1 1966 366,700 218.700 59.6 18.700 5.1 change between -18.8 per cent 1966~and 1951 -24.6 per cent +27.2 per cent *1950 for Scotland Source: tables 6 & 8: A century of agricultural statistics (Ministry of Agriculture1968) TABLE 2 AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN SIZE OF ENTERPRISE 1960/9 ]N ENGLAND AND WALES (per cent per annum compound) enterprise 1960-5 1965-9 1960-9 dairy cows 4.5 6.8 5.5 beef cow~ 2.5 5.7 3.9 breeding ewes 2.7 3.6 3.1 breeding pigs 8.4 9.9 9.1 laying fowls* 10.3 12.4 11 .2 broilers 32.5 13.2 23.6 wheat 7.6 5.1 6.5 barley 5.4 7.7 6.4 potatoes (main crop) 5.3 6.0 5.6 *in 1960 fowls six months old and over; in 1965 and 1969, fowls laying eggs for eating. Source: " the changing structure of British agriculture," C. J. Brown Agriculture, November, 1970. rarely rises above the level of petulant criticism based on a complete misunderstanding about the nature of the taxpayer's support for agricultur~. From time to time our leading economic journal writes about agriculture in such an offhand and biased fashion that it is often necessary for the misconceptions put forward to be corrected by letter in the next issue. Perhaps the main reason why so many people have a blind spot about agriculture is that the UK is a highly urbanised nation whose pre-occupations have naturally been those common to any crowded industrial society. Whatever the explanation, anyone wishing to defend British agriculture and to explain its vital interests in the outcome of the common market negotiations, risks boring his audience unless he can show that the interests of the whole community are affected by what happens in agriculture. We must begin with a few basic facts. British agriculture had a forecast total output in 1970/71 of £2,364 million, which makes it one of Britain's largest industries. Although employing only 3 per cent of the total working popula tion, it has made a significant and expanding contribution to national prosperity both by virtue of importsaving (we now produce nearly 70 percent of our consumption of temperate zone food compared with 50 per cent before the second world war) and by virtue of its productivity record (over the past ten years double the rate of improvement achieved in manufacturing industry). These notable achievements have been based on the system of guaranteed prices and productiongrants, paid for by taxation, which have cost on average over the past ten years £275 million per annum. For this expenditure the British consumer has had the benefit of the cheapest food in anyindustrial nation. These facts are set out, not to show that everything is right with British agriculture today. it is not, but to show that its record as an industry is second to none and compares more than favourably with other sections of British industry (protected by tariffs or subsidies) which usuallyreceive the accolades of economists. Comparisons are odious, but one cannot help pointing out that if the record of the car industry, protected behind its massive tariff barriers, had been as good as that of agriculture since 1947, this country would lbe in a much stronger economic position than it is today. An industry like agriculture which has served the nation well does not deserve to have its interests neglected in negotiations for entry into .the EEC. Moreover, it is not in the national interest that a major British industry should be offered up for sacrifice on the altar of European unity. Some of the interests of agriculture have already been abandoned by the government's declared intention to accept the CAP and the system of financing the communitybudget. This unconditional acceptance of the CAP in principle is a serious mistake and it will be one of the main purposes of this pamphlet to explain why this is so. lt has been argued that drawing up balance sheets of advantages and disadvantages for agriculture is not helpful. because the CAP will have to be altered both to accommodate a group of ten nations rather than six and to deal with problems, such as agricultural surpluses, which have so far proved intractable. The point made by pro- marketeers is that the UK could influence the development of the CAP in the right direction after joining the common market. They accept that the CAP is not a good one but they emphasise the persistence of the calls for reform even within the EEC. What is implicit in their view is that the CAP can be radicallyaltered so that it becomes less burden, some to the British economy and more encouraging to British farmers. However, it can be argued with equal force thaf to enter the common market in hope that the CAP will be greatly improved. is to allow wishful thinking to triumph over the facts of agricultural policy in the EEC since 1958. The policy may not be changed radically ; it may nol even be changed in ways which would benefit British farmers. The one thing that will not happen is that the basic principles of the CAP will be abandoned. These are first, common prices for the main products ; second, protection at the external frontiers against cheap food imports from the rest of the world ; third, priority to internal production. As long as these principles persist, the EEC can never be an outward looking body on agricultural matters, taking account of the interests of farmers in other countries, and of world agricultural trade. Any reform of the CAP will be of minor significance as long as its basic principles remain sacrosanct. It is true that there are pressures for change but not for any radical change. In paragraphs 14-16 of the European commission's revised opinion on the membership applications (published in October 1969), reference is made to "grave problems created by developments on the agricultural market, both where farmers and the consumers are concerned and from the financial point of view." These problems require" measures to deal with the structure of production and marketing and ... a new approach to policy on markets and prices." However, even on the tenuous assumption that the CAP will be changed, no one knows what directon a revised CAP would take within an enlarged EEC. For example, will producer prices be increased, decreased or perhaps left unchanged? The future of western European agriculture depends very much on the answer to this question. The recent decision to raise agricultural prices in return for some small encouragement to older farmers to reti.re, shows t,he strength and nature of the forces ranged against radical changes in the CAP. Higher prices are a more than adequate quid pro quo for structural reform, for they have an immediate impact on product.ion, whereas the wheels of structural reform grind very slowly. In any event, it is doubtful if structural reform will solve the long term problem of surplusproduction. We must accept thctt current speculation about future price levels serves no useful purpose, except perhaps to allow a let out to supporters of British membership of the EEC, who are increasingly conscious of the absurdities of its agricultural policy. Furthermore, the theories of distinguished economists about future levels of agriculturalprices are no more authoritative than those of anyone who works in agriculture ; wishful thinking is a dangerousexercise when the future of a successful British industry is at stake. While it is true that we do not know what CAP price levels would be at the end of a transition period, we do know what they are currently, and it is these prices that have to be used in analysing the effects on British agriculture. Fmthermore, our political leaders have accepted the CAP in principle, no matter what its merits or demerits, and so it is quite fair when estimating its impact to look at the CAP as it exists. Tt is vitally important that farmers and farm workers should know how adoption of the present CAP will effect them. For this purpose they will be less interested in the macro-economic view (the "average farmer" is a mythicalcreature) and more interested in the effects of the CAP on particular commodities. They will also want to assess its relevance to the problems •hey face. Moreover, it is not just those directly engaged in agriculture who will be concerned ; the many industries dependent on agricultural prosperity are also involved. To name only a few ; feeding ~tuffs firms, fertiliser manufacturers, farm machinery manufacturers, seed merchants, transport contractors, fuel suppliers, slaughterhouse operators, meat factor.ies, by-product plants, butchers, 'grocers and the {ood trades generally. All these without mentioning the biggest farm customer of all : the consumer, who will be vitally interested in changes in the pa·ttern of food supplies and prices. Although most farmers are dissatisfied with the present system of agricuitural support, they are sensible enough to look very closely at any radical alternative to it. What they have been looking for in recent years is first, a grea·ter opportunity to expand agriculturalproduction and thereby contribute substantially to import saving ; and second, a better return, mainly out of market prices so as to lessen the amount of subsidies from the government. Farmers have felt strongly that the treasury, which holds the subsidy purse strings has only one aim ; to ensure that the financial cost of farm support does not exceed the budgetary limits laid down, and that these limits should not increase substantially from year to year. The success of this policy is shown by the fact that exchequer support for agriculture in 1958/59 was £241.4 million and the forecast for 1970/71 was only £269.4 million. The result of this treasury philosophy .is that net farming income does not keep pace with rising costs. The positionbecame particularly acute in 1970. Talble 3 shows how net income as a percentage of total revenue has been falling. In order to escape this squeeze between higher costs and static income, the NFUS have suggested combining a deficiency payment system with the phasing of imports and home production, so as to ensure that market prices are kept at a high level throughout the year. They have emphasised that such steps are essential if British farmers are to continue to expand production. Such TABLE 3 U.K. FARMING ESTIMATED NiET INCOME(£ MILLION) percentageincrease 1938/9 1947/8 1951/2 1955/6 1960/1 1966 / 7 1970 / 1 1947/48 (forecast) 1970/71 total revenue 299.5 762 1159 1448 1655.5 2006.5 2632 245 total expenditure farm net income 246.5 53 530.5 231.5 820.5 338.5 1097.5 350.5 1261.5 394 1534.5 472 2043 589 285 154 net income total revenue (as a percentage) 17.7 30.4 29.2 24.2 23.8 23 .5 22.4 Source: table 32: A century of agricultural statistics (Ministry of Agriculture 1968) Cmnd. 4623, March 1971. expansion, they claim, would not only save foreign exchange, it would also help reduce the burden of the CAP if the UK entered the common market. Dissatisfaction with the present system of agricultural support has encouraged the Conservative government to begin a complete change over in the system, so that levies on imports become the main factor in keeping market prices at a satisfactory level, with a fall back guarantee at a lower level. This new policy is not unlike the CAP if we regard the fall back guarantee as being akin to the CAP intervention price. In fact the new Conservative policy goes a long way to preparing British agriculture for adoption of the CAP. However, there are many snags to be overcome before the new policy can be fullyimplemented, particularly for commodities where the UK has interna·tional commitments and for those commodities where it is more or less self sufficient. To take only one example, pigmeat will present serious problems. Th~ UK is virtually self sufficient in fresh pigrneat, so levies on non-existent imports will be useless in maintainingmarket prices at a reasonable level. Imports of bacon, at present providing some 60 per cent of domestic consumption, come mainly from Denmark on a duty free basis. Levies could not be imposed unilaterally without breaking obligations to EFTA partners. The new policy is foreshadowed in the 1971 white paper, Annual review and determination of guarantees (Cmnd4623). Reference is made to the review being held "on the threshold of significant changes in the system of agricultural support." At the same time as the annual review was published, details were announced of interim levyschemes for beef and veal , mutton and lamb, milk products (other than butter and cheese) and modifications in the existing scheme for cereals. These details show the likely form of a full scale import levy scheme, although ·there is as yet no information about how fall back guarantees will operate. Official farming reactions to the new system have been cautious but not hostile. The council of the NFU of England and Wales called the inception of the interim levy schemes " a positive move in the direction of more effective regulation of imports, an objective long sought by the union." However, the council was "concerned that these schemes, which could result in some weakening of the guarantees, should have no damaging effect on longer term confidence." In spite of this official caution, some farmers are so fed up with what they regard as the iniquities of the present system that they have welcomed the new levy system and also the prospect of the CAP. They argue that the aims of the CAP and of the 1947 and 1957 agriculture acts are similar in that both seek to secure a more prosperous and efficient domestic agriculture. This similarity of aims suggests to them that the interests of British agriculture would be well served under the CAP. They point to the similarities between UK and EEC agriculture, with farmers on both sides of the channel facing the same problems. Western Europeanfarmers do have some problems in common, especially in relation to agricultural production in other parts of the world, which have certain natural advantages. Agricultural production in western !Europe is achieved at a high cost for climatic and geographical reasons, because of the higher wages that have to be paid to farm workers to compete with industrial wages, because of the high price of land (farming is in competition with industry, urban expansion and recreational developmentfor the use of land), because of the lesser degree of specialisation possible in farming units which are small bycomparison with those in New Zealand, Australia, Argentina and North America, and because more capital is necessary than in other countries to contain unit costs of production. Therefore, if domestic agriculture is to be encouraged for social, economic or strategic reasons, some degree of protection from cheaper and more efficient overseas competition in agriculturalproducts is necessary. Tn this respect the CAP is probably more effective than the British system, since there is no nossibility of domestic market pricesbeing undermined by cheaper imports as has happened in the UK from time to time. We do have a procedure for dealing with dumped agricultural products (those sold below their cost of production) but this has not proved very satisfactory in operation. All this appears to confirm .that there could be considerable advantages for British agriculture in adopting the CAP ; indeed, this is how some farmers react to the debate on agriculture. The NFUs have naturally been more cautious, because they have to consider the interests of all their members, and because they are not prepared to pronounce on the CAP until they know the exact terms of entry, insofar as theyrelate to agriculture. However, they have expressed doubts about the effect on their members of a change from the present system of agricultural support to the CAP, even if these doubts have been muted in public so as to avoid rocking the boat for a Conservative government. Nevertheless, it is time that the probable impact of the CAP was examined in detail. We shall therefore begin by analysing the effects of the CAP on the major agricultural commodities produced in the UK. Then we shall examine the concessions the government claims to have won in the negotiations. However, we cannot stop at this stage since the CAP itself mayembody certain features which will affect the general progress of British agriculture. Furthermore, it is also necessary to consider the problemsfacing farmers to see whether or not the CAP could make an effective contribution to helping solve them. The next four sections will deal respectively with these issues. 2. results of adopting the CAP in the United Kingdom It is as well to begin by echoing the words of Cmnd 4289 (para. 25) : " . . . any a5~sessment of the effects of adopting the CAP must depend upon a whole range of assumptions and be subject to a substantial range of possibilities." Accurate assessment is impossible but ~orne assessment must be made, and this is more likely to be within a reasonable range of possibility if it star-ts from the effect on individual commodities. Livestock : the UK has guaranteed prices for cattle, sheep and wool and prod uction grants for hill sheep and cow51, beef cows and calves. Feed costs have been relatively low, partly because cereals are subsidised. The CAP would mean no guaranteed prices, and the future of the production grants for calves, hill cows and beef cows would be uncertain. There would be target prices for cattle and calve~. supported by a system of duties and levies and by support biuyingarrangements, but not for sheep. Feed costs would rise subsiaO'tially. Producers of cattle and calves would be better off because the CAP target price is much higher than the guaranteed price and feed co5~ts would probably not rise as much. However, there would be a much stronger veal trade than at present, which would increase the cost of bought in calves for fattening. Producers of sheep and lamb would be worse off because their only protection would be a 20 per cent import duty (even this might not apply if concessions are given to New Zealand Iamb exports) and there would be no guaranteed price for woo! or subsidy for hill sheep. It can be argued that there is a vast potentialmarket for lamb in the EEC (see taJble 6, Page 11) but to change continental eat. ing habits would require a sustained and eXlpensive advertising campaign, which the British .producers could not afford to finance. Pigs : The UK has guaranteed prices for pigs, related to feed costs and forecast marketings, and a sy~tem of stabilising arrangements for bacon curers (agovernment subsidy at certain times, payments to the government at other times) which enables them to pay competitive prices for bacon pigs even though these are not justified by returns on the bacon market. Feed costs (approximately 70 per cent of the cost of pig production) are relatively low because cereals are subsidised. Northern Ireland has a Pigs Marketing Board (PMB) which gives producers security of market at reasonable prices. The CAP would mean no guaranteed pr.ices and much higher feed costs. There would be some degree of market support, mainly through levies on imports and occasionally by means of support buying, resulting in higher market prices than those currently in force in the UK. The stabilising arrangements for bacon curers would di5~appear (as would subsidies to the Danish bacon pig industry) because they contravene the community's rules of competition. The bacon market sharing understanding would have to be abandoned and imports allowed freely from Denmark and Eire. The PMB in Northern Ireland could no·t continue in its present form, because its operations contravene the community's rules of competition. Since an enlarged EEC would usually be more than self sufficient in pig meat production, there would be a recurrence of the notorious pig cycle (the classic text book example of rapid increases in production causing prices to fall steeply, leading to a steep decline in production, followed by an increase ·in prices which causes increa51es in production) this time on a western European basis, with consequent instability in the industry. This would affect the British pig industry more than others because it is more specialised and intensive than most other EEC pig industrie~ particularly in the sphere of bacon pig production, which would be hard hit by substantial fluctuations in price levels. In this economic climate, producers would be reluctant to continue present policies of investment in better breeding stock, feed, buildings and management. Bacon production plays no part in the pigmeat economy of the EEC, and British bacon curers might well find themselves starved of raw material as some bacon pig producers opt for fresh meat production within an enlarged EEC. Such a move could overload the pork market and keep prices down. Bacon priceswould need to rise substantially to allow curers to compete with other outlets for pigs., but this could bring about a decline in bacon consumption, which has in any case been static for several years past. Therefore most producers of pigs, especially bacon pigs, would be worse off under the CAP. Cereals: The UK has guaranteed prices for wheat, barley, oats and rye, The CAP would mean no guaranteed prices. but there would be target prices (adjusted for transport cost in relation to distance from the area of greatest deficiency) for wheat, barley and rye. The target prices are much higher than present guaranteed prices and are supported by a system of variable levies. Even after allowing for the loss of the fertiliser sub~dy, producers of cereals would be much better off under the CAP. Milk : The UK has a guaranteed price for milk, subject to a standard quantity arrangement. Production is geared to the liquid market, with less than 25 per cent going for manufacture. Feed costs have been relatively low. The CAP would mean the replacement of a guaranteed price by a target price. Producer prices, however, have not always reached the target price level. Dairy by-product prices will rise because EEC productionis geared to a highly protected manu- Jacturing market, with only some 20 per cent going to the liquid market which is not yet covered by a CAP regulation. The general over supply problem of milk and milk products in the EEC will not be alleviated by UK entry, if longer term concessions are made to New Zealand dairy products. There could be less efficient plant utilisa tion because of the imbalance between summer and winter milk production ; this would weaken the competitive position of the UK producer vis-a-vis his continental competitors, since they are geared to producing for a much bigger manufacturing market. Feed cos.ts would increase, partly because of higher cereal prices, and partly because on larger farms grassland for milk production would be in competition with grassland for beef production and grassland for cereals. Fertilisers. would cost more. The effect of increased costs will vary widely, depending on the ratio of each producer's output to purchased feed cost. There would be higher prices for calves and culled cows, which could provide an incentive to increased production. The Milk Marketing Board would probably have to change those of its operations which contravene the community's rules of competition (particularly the pooling of trans.port costs). Some producers of milk, especially those in remote areas, would therefore be worse off under the CAP but those producers favourably situated in relation to the liquid market should do at least as well as at present. Eggs: The UK's present guara nteed prices for hen and duck eggs. are being phased out, as are centralised market support operations. Feed costs have been relatively low. The CAP has no support arrangements for eggs, though there are levies on imports. Feed costs would be much higher. The producer of eggs would be worse off under the CAP by vi rtue of higher feed costs. Poultry : The UK has no guaranteedprices but .feed costs have been relatively low. The CAP has no supportarrangements for poultry, though there are levies on imports. Feed costs would be muoh higher, so producers would be worse off under the CAP. Potatoes : The UK has a guaranteedprice, but acreage is restricted by the Potato Marketing Board which also · undertakes support buying. The CAP has no support arrangements for potatoes. The board's main functions could not continue since they contravene the community's rules of competition. Producers of potatoes would be exposed to free market conditions and could therefore be worse off under the CA P. Sugar B.eet : The UK has a guaranteed price for sugar beet. The CAP has a target price, together with a guaranteed minimum price for specified quantities. CAP prices are similar to those in the UK. Producers of sugar beet would therefore be better off under the CAP in terms of opportunity to expand, ~ince sugar imports would be subject to tariff. TABLE 4 Wool : The UK has a guaranteed price for wool and the Wool Marketing Board (WMB) undertakes price stabilising operations. The CAP has no support arrangements for wool, which is treated as an industrial product. The WMB's main marketing and price support functions could not continue since they contravene the community's rules of competition. Producers of wool would therefore be worse off under the CAP. l-lorticultur.e: The UK has no guaranteed prices for such products but tariffs on imports give some protection. There are also certain government grants. The CAP has no support arrangements for horticultural product~. There would be no tariff against imports from EEC members, and the future of governments grants would be uncertain. There are urpluses in the EEC, especially of apples and pears. which could drive prices down to an uneconomic level. Tomatoes and early vegetables would be adversely affected by competition from areas with better climatic condition5\. Thus horticultural producers would be worse off when the CAP is applied in full, at the end of any transitional period. estimated British farm percentage of total commodity output 1970/71 farm output £million fat cattle and calve~ 373 15.8 fat sheep and lambs 91 3.8 fat pigs 280 ll.8 cereals 307 13.0 milk and milk products 498 21.0 eggs 191 8.1 poultry 141 6.0 potatoes 108 4.6 sugar beet 44 1.9 wool 13 0.5 horticulture 286 12.1 sundry output 33 1.4 Source : A century of agricultural statistics (Ministry of Agriculture) Cmnd. 4623 March 1971, table 12. TABLE 5 CURR!ENT BRITI8iH AND iEEC AAJOOS 1970/71 UK EEC guaranteed prices ·target or equivalent price~ in £ in £ 1971/2 1970/1 fat cattle (per cwt.) 12.35 14.40 (a) wheat (per cwt.) 1.63 2.25 Qb) bar.ley (per cwt.) 1.45 2.02 (b) rye (rper cwt.) 1.08 2.06 (ib) milk Gper gallon) 0.221 0.20 (c) pigs (per score deadweight) 2.93 2.92 sugar beet (per ton) 7.60 7.15 (d) Source: 1971 annual review (MAFF) Cmnd 4623, and European commission. (a) increased by 6 per cent for 1971/2. (b) cereal prices were increased by between 1 and 5 per cent for 1971 /2. (c) increased by 6 per cen:t for 1971 I2. (d) increased by 5.7 ·per cent for 1971/2. This brief survey has covered the majorfarm commodi,ties produced in the UK. Table 4 shows the relative importan.::e of each one, within the context of total farm production. Table 5 compares British guaranteed prices with EEC target or equivalent prices for the major commodities. These figure& show that gross receipts for most commodities will increase but it must be emphasised that for many farmers such increases will be wholly or partly offset by increased costs of production and marketing. general effects on British agriculture The recent white paper on the CO!\tS of British entry into the EEC estimated that net farm ·incomes would rise between 3 and 10 per cent. These average figures should not be considered in isolation. Producers of ca·ttle, calves, cereals and sugar beet (approximately 31 per cent of the value of farm output) would be much better off than at present ; producers of other commodities would 'be no better or worse off. The pres.entbalance between arable and livestock rroduction could well be upset with in calculable consequences, since milk, beef, veal, cereal and grassland prod uction are all closely related. Two examples will suffice to illustrate t·his point. It will be much more expensive to feed cereals to livestock, so more efficient gras.sland management will be imperative ; but grassland farmers with favourable soil and climatic conditions will be under great economic pressure to replace grass by cereals. It &eems inevitable that cereal production, at presentonly a small percentage of UK total farm output, will expand, probably at the expense of liveSttock production(using bought in cereals) and milk production, in areas where cereals are a feasible alternative to grass. There would at present appear to be considerable scope within an enJ.arged EEC for expanding production of cattle, calve&, barley and sugar beet (barley and beef at the expense of milk production, veal at the expense of beef production). Opportunities for such a scale of expansion would probably not exist for other commodities, however, because, even though the UK does not produce all its temperate zone food requirements, in some cases British farmers would initially have to acceptthat the ~hortfall would be made up by surplus production in the other nine member countries of the enlarged community. For sheep and lambs the prospects of expansion are limited by consumer eating habits in the EEC (seeTable 6) and by the economics of mutton and lamb production, for even under -the system of guaranteed prices the breeding flock has been in decline, particularly in lowland areas. The CAP offer& no assurances to mutton and lamb producers and is therefore unlikely to provide incentives for ·increased production. For milk producers the prospects of expansion are nebulous. An enlarged EEC would not be self sufficient in butter and cheese but it is generaHy assumed that concession& will be made to enable New Zealand to continue sending buHer and cheese to the UK. The effect of such concessions would be to provide some limited scope for expanded production in the UK. Much depends on whether there would be an increase in milk consumption and the extent of reduced consumption of manufactured dairy products caused by higher prices. For pigs the shor-t term outlook is verydifferent. Pig herds both in the UK and in western Europe have been expanding because the relative cheapness of pig- meat compared with beef and veal has led to increased consumer demand. This favourable economic factor should continue in an enlarged EEC, but in due course there will be considerable over production, Market prices will fall. Support buying on the 1\Cale required to maintain market prices will be too expensive and unwieldy to operate effectively. The notorious pig cycle will recur, leaving the future of pig production in the hands of producers with strong enough nerves or big enough capital investment to remain in business until the next phase of the pig cycle. It i-t tragic ·that British producers whose own pig cycle has been tamed by the opera'tion of the flexible guarantee arrangements, should have this safeguard ·taken away from them under the CAP. The EEC has no mechanism to limit pigmeat production ; indeed, it seems to regard the pig cycle as an act of God. This is not a good prospect for pig producers, TA!BiJE 6 MEAT CONSUMPTION IN E'EC A!ND THIE FOUR APPLICAiNT COUNffiiBS (pounds per head per yerur) mutton, total beef and veal pork lamb, goa~meat (inol. horsemeat) average1961-5 1969 aver(llge1961-5 1969 average1961-5 1969 aver~e 1961-5 1969 Belgium& l.Juxembou~g France 53 63 59 66 52 51 64 59 1 5 1 6 113 124 131 135 West Germany 48 Italy 36 HoHand 44 52 45 42 70 19 52 81 26 61 1 under 0.5 2 2 under 0.5 under 0.5 120 60 99 133 73 107 U.K. 57 54 58 60 25 23 140 137 Denmark NorwayEire 37 33 30 41 32 38 90 33 55 74 38 60 1 10 24 1 10 23 129 78 95 117 81 121 Livestock and meat, FLM 1-71, us Dept. o'f Agriculture. It is important in considering the prospect& for expanding British agricultural production to bear in mind the estimated rise in retail food prices of between 18 and 26 per cent. Even this official estimate must be treated with reserve, since it is based on theoretical calculations and not on actual prices in shops. It allows only a very low mark up for distributive margins, though experience &uggests this is too optimistic an assessment. A report in the Financial Times (30.12.1969) gave the results of a shopping survey by Associated Industrial Consultants (the only wide ranging survey carried out by an impartialorganisation) which concluded that " common market countries pay from between 22 and 58 per cent more for Britis.h style food than the equivalent cost in the UK." Since that time the gap between UK and EEC retail food prices has narrowed. Nevertheless, adoption of the CAP would still mean steep increases in the retail prices of beef, veal, pigmeat, sugar and manufactured dairy products, which would have serious repercussions on the pattern of domes.tic consumption. British farmers will want to know consumption trends in the light of higher prices, before they can decide on their prospects of a profitable existence under the CAP. Useful evidence on this point could be obtained if the price elasticity of demand for the products in question was known. Informa-tion would also be needed about income elasticity of demand for various products. because, if personal incomes increase as the result of entry into the common market, more money might be available for spending on food . In the absence of reliable statistical informa-tion OJL these points, we must use such evidence as is available. So far as. beef is concerned, the rise in retail prices in the past two years has Jed to a check in the growth of consumption and a move to increased consumption of pork and poultry, which have been relatively cheaper. This process could be accentuated by the much bigger retail price increases likely under the CAP. Table 6 shows how meat consumption pa:tterns differ in the UK, the EEC countries, and the other applicants. For bacon the market is highly inelastic. Retail prices have been rising slowly but demand has been static, even though bacon is still one of the cheapest meats available to the consumer. As a popularbreakfast food , bacon is competihey may well despair of their future in an enlarged EEC. Stability in the market for eggs may be too much to hope for, because of the way the CAP operates, but since the phasing out of the guaran.tees is likely to produce similar conditions in the UK, egg producers can hardly have expected more than this wishful thinking to emerge from the negotiations. Milk is a maHer of great importance to British agriculture. The prospects for producers and consumers are bound up with any final agreement that may emerge from the negotiations on dairy products, including the opportunities for continued imports from New Zealand. There is no EEC regulation for liquid milk so the government's assurance that there is a joint understanding with the EEC about the possibilitieswhich will be open to us, may or may not be a worthwhile one. The EEC has accepted that one aim of the CAP should be to use as much milk as possible for liquid consumption, and Vhat the policy should not be ~pplied so as to impedethis aim. However, much will depend on there being a sufficient differential between the price of milk for liquidconsumption and the price of milk for manufacture. The differentipl need not be fixed but whether it will be sufficient no one can say at t!his stage. It should also be borne in mind that there is no mechanism envisaged to ensure that British winter milk production remains at its present level and to correct the imbalance in an enlarged EEC between supplies of summer and winter milk. The negotiations have therefore clarified some issues but left a number of other problems unresolved. Producers and consumers are being asked in effect to wai·t and see. community review of agriculture Geoffrey Rippon made the following statement on 29 October, 1970 (Hansard vol. 805 c. 440) :-"We were able to reach agreement on procedures for an annual rev·iew of the economic conditions and prospects of the agriculturalinduMry in the enlarged community. The commis~ion will draw up this review for the council of ministers on the basis of all the relevant information and after contacts with the agricultural o11ganisations. 11hese arrangements will ensure effective contacts with producers." The statements speak of contact, not consultation, but it may be that consultation is intended. Mr. Rippon speaks of " adequate contacts " lbut Jim Pri'Of, the Minister of Agriculture, speaks of " effective and meaningful consultations with producer organisations" (Hansard vo. 809 c. 1324). There will be an annual review in the UK, but the arrangements for this will not be given statutory force (unlike the present system). This review will not of course deal with prices. At communitylevel there will be a review of " economic conditions and prospects by the commiss·ion, in consulta.tion with member states." The information to be used in this review is uncertain ; and there is no assurance th•at the trend of net farm income or cost increases since the last review will be taken into account (as under the present British system). The phrase " all the relevant information" might be held to cover these points, except that not all community countries have this information to the extent that it is available in the UK. Farmers should also remember that if costs are taken into account, these will be assessed and used on a community, not a national, basis. The communityreview procedure ought to cover prices, but there is as yet no assurance that this will be the case. In short, the commun ·ity review will fall far short of what British farmers have been used to since 1947. It is small consolation to realise that such a review, however inadequate, is a considerable advance on what has gone before. Production grants for hill farmers are considered to be a matter for negotiation with the BEC since they conflict with the principle that ubsid1ies and barrier to free competition must be removed. Since these grants actX)unt for a very high percentage of the net income of hill farmers, it is es entia! to obtain assurances about their f.uture, even thoug~h there is no pecific EEC prohibit> ion of any present Brit·ish aids to hill farmer . Such, farmers might qualify for aid if the EEC had a centrally financed r gional policy, but such a development is not in pro pect. All tha.t can be hoped for is that the common agricultura·l fund may be prepared to provide some assistance and that pre cnt Briti h grants can be converted into a legitimate form of aid for d·ifficult area . No a urances on these points arc l>ikely until a.fter a decision has been taken on tlhc i sue of entry. producer marketing boards The future of these boards, which play a vital part in maintainin.g British agri· ultural prosperity, ha been d>isoussed in the negotiations. The Minister of Agriculture said (Hansard vol. 809 c. 1323/4) : " .. . a non-governmental producer organi&at>ion, provided that it acts within the provisions of the treaty and secondary legislation deriving from it, may engage in the direcLion of supplies, the p ling of returns and seasonal pricing. Thus our under tanding is that the Milk Market,ing Board as a nongovernmental pr ducer wiiJ be able to c ntinue the e entiat features of our pre ent milk marketing arrangements. Likewi e. we believe that the other marketing board will continue to play'ln important r61e in the efficient producti nand marketing." Thi statement would provide orne a surance to farm r . . if it was not for the use of the w rd " our understanding" in connecti n with the future of the Milk Marketing Board and the words "we b lieve '' in connection with the other marketing boards. The use of "our under tanding " suggests that the commission or other EEC countries may have a different understanding, and that the government is merely trying to reassure producers wiLhout having obtained an agreement with the EEC that the marketing boards could continue all their present functions, except those directly stemming from the present guarantee arrangements. These doubts are confirmed by a parliamentary answer by Jim Prior on 20 April, 1971 :" It has been establ-ished tJhat the marketing boards wiH be able to carry out certain of their functions, and I very much hope (this is founded on l!he intere t which, in my experience, people in France and Germany have shown in the efficiency of our marketing boards) that we hall be able to carry over many of the functions." Hope is a poor substitute for definite as urances. It is now quite clear that there is no clear cut agreement about how many of their present functions the marketing boards will be allowed to oarry out. (There must now be grave doubts a to whether price fixing and pooling of transport costs are permis ible.) It sho'llld be noted in this connect, ion that the EEC places great reliance on the development of producer groups but these are in no way a substitute for marketing boards. British expeDience shows clearly that marketing groups are not !'he answer for most producers, Whereas marketing boards have proved their worth. If the fiuture of agricultural marketing in the UK depend on groups, then that future is a very bleak one. problems of the transitional period Geffrey Rippon dealt with these matter in hi statement on 17 May, 1971 (Han ard vol. 817 c. 884) when he said that : " .. . we would adopt the mechanism of the common agrelf·sufficiency in agriculture must inevitably produce large surpluses in the long run. ,)'econd, in &pite of the elaborate and exrpensive machinery of agricultural protection, farm incomes in tihe EEC have fallen further behind those in industry. This has happened in spite of the unrealistically high prices paid to EEC farmers in order to give them a subsistence income. Many of the EEC farmers are very small, many are part time, and some 75 per cent would fail to pass the British viability test of standard man days. The CAP has not succeeded in promoting agricultural prosperity within the EEC. As a group of distinguished economists has pointed out (Atlantic paper 4, Atlantic I nstitute, op. cit.), high farm prices do not nece sarily mean high farm incomes. Indeed, -the chances are that incomes in agriculture will continue to lag behind other sectors of the economy because any further increase in commodity prices must be ruled out because it would be likely to worsen the problem of over production. The very existence of surpluses means a constant threat to farm prices, as can be seen by the price 22 proposals put forward in the first Mansholt plan ·to amend the CAP. Although it is unlikely that prices will actually be decreased because of the widespread opposition to such a move, the probability is tha·t commodity prices will be lef.t unchanged after the small increases in March 1971. As their value is steadily eroded by inflation and cost increases, this will put much greater pressure on EEC farmers to increase their efficiency or get out of farming. They are having to recognise that, whatever alterations are made to the CAP, little can be done by agricultural measures a1'0ne to narrow the gap bet- ween fa,rm and non-ifarm inCOIIlles. It must be realised that in many parts of the EEC (as in the UK) farm incomes are a social problem as well as an agri- cultural one. The record of agricultural politics in the common market shows that social problems cannot be suc- cessfuHy treated as iJf they were agricul- tural ones. In this context, it is tragic that the Labour government's experiment with rural development boards has been abandoned by the Conservatives. These boards were an imaginative concept, designed to take into account rural amenities, rural transport services, tourist prospects and farm amalgama- tion. The CAP has proved incapable of thinking of anything as farsighted. Third, measures such as those the EEC has recently adopted to achieve struc- tural improv·ements by creating larger and more efficient farnning units, will not in themselves solve the prdblem of surpluses, though they may succeed in increasing average farm incomes. The injection of capital into large farms will strengthen their ability to take ad- vantage of scientific and technologicaiJ. developments and lead to even bigger increases in production and improve- ments in productivity; and consequently even greater surpluses. Gradual de-I creases in commodity prices could have the same effect, with producers increas- ing production in order to keep down 1 unit costs and maintain income. The only solrution to this problem is to re-· move resources from a,griculture. by taking land out of agricu'ltural use al- together. The second Mansholt plan, submitted to the EEC council of mini- sters in May 1970, placed greater em- phasis on the restructuring 'Oif rproduc- tion. This is a better policy than that of seeking to improve farm incomes by 1 means of the price mechanism. Never- theless, the new policy places greater respons~bility on member countries to 1 bring aJbout structural improvements in agriculture, with the EEC aclling as co- ordinator of national policies. Although politically desirable, this approach is a departure from the community ap- proach previously adopted. It is doubt- ful if even the truncated version of the second ManSiholt plan recently ap- proved by EEC ~gricultura~l ministers could be properly carried orut bynational goverruments depending to a great extent on the a,gricultural vote (alth"Ough this is gradually declining in importance). Moreover, there are defici- encies in the Mansholt approach to structmal improvement. For example, one Mansholt scheme gave incentives to milk producers to g.ive up produc- t.ion. Many producers who might other- wise have gone out of milk production held on to their cows until the slaughter bonus becaJme effective. Before sending in cows for slaughter undoubtedlymany producers would have first ex-· changed llheir best dairy cows with cows culled from neighbouring herds. Thereifore, although the immediate effect of the cow slaughter programme has been to halt the rise in milk pro- duction, the prospects are that average milk Y·ields will grodually increase and raise the problem of surpluses once more. 22 proposals put forward in the first Mansholt plan ·to amend the CAP. Although it is unlikely that prices will actually be decreased because of the widespread opposition to such a move, the probability is tha·t commodity prices will be lef.t unchanged after the small increases in March 1971. As their value is steadily eroded by inflation and cost increases, this will put much greater pressure on EEC farmers to increase their efficiency or get out of farming. They are having to recognise that, whatever alterations are made to the CAP, little can be done by agricultural measures a1'0ne to narrow the gap bet- ween fa,rm and non-ifarm inCOIIlles. It must be realised that in many parts of the EEC (as in the UK) farm incomes are a social problem as well as an agri- cultural one. The record of agricultural politics in the common market shows that social problems cannot be suc- cessfuHy treated as iJf they were agricul- tural ones. In this context, it is tragic that the Labour government's experiment with rural development boards has been abandoned by the Conservatives. These boards were an imaginative concept, designed to take into account rural amenities, rural transport services, tourist prospects and farm amalgama- tion. The CAP has proved incapable of thinking of anything as farsighted. Third, measures such as those the EEC has recently adopted to achieve struc- tural improv·ements by creating larger and more efficient farnning units, will not in themselves solve the prdblem of surpluses, though they may succeed in increasing average farm incomes. The injection of capital into large farms will strengthen their ability to take ad- vantage of scientific and technologicaiJ. developments and lead to even bigger increases in production and improve- ments in productivity; and consequently even greater surpluses. Gradual de-I creases in commodity prices could have the same effect, with producers increas- ing production in order to keep down 1 unit costs and maintain income. The only solrution to this problem is to re-· move resources from a,griculture. by taking land out of agricu'ltural use al- together. The second Mansholt plan, submitted to the EEC council of mini- sters in May 1970, placed greater em- phasis on the restructuring 'Oif rproduc- tion. This is a better policy than that of seeking to improve farm incomes by 1 means of the price mechanism. Never- theless, the new policy places greater respons~bility on member countries to 1 bring aJbout structural improvements in agriculture, with the EEC aclling as co- ordinator of national policies. Although politically desirable, this approach is a departure from the community ap- proach previously adopted. It is doubt- ful if even the truncated version of the second ManSiholt plan recently ap- proved by EEC ~gricultura~l ministers could be properly carried orut bynational goverruments depending to a great extent on the a,gricultural vote (alth"Ough this is gradually declining in importance). Moreover, there are defici- encies in the Mansholt approach to structmal improvement. For example, one Mansholt scheme gave incentives to milk producers to g.ive up produc- t.ion. Many producers who might other- wise have gone out of milk production held on to their cows until the slaughter bonus becaJme effective. Before sending in cows for slaughter undoubtedlymany producers would have first ex-· changed llheir best dairy cows with cows culled from neighbouring herds. Thereifore, although the immediate effect of the cow slaughter programme has been to halt the rise in milk pro- duction, the prospects are that average milk Y·ields will grodually increase and raise the problem of surpluses once more. A policy of structural reform based on the discouragement of smaller units in order to increase farm incomes and reduce surplruses can help farmers contain rising costs, but it will not do more than this unless it is combined with an effective policy for taking land out of agricultural production. The econd M~ansholt plan does contain proposals for subsidising the conversion of agricultural land into use for forestry or recreation ; but these proposals do not go far enough and have liHle chance of success, except perhaps in marginal farming areas such as hill 5arms, where increased output and efficiency are no longer poss1ble. The 1Vedel plan for the reform of French agriculture proposed much more radical mea~sures in order to take agricultural land out of production. Such a plan on an EEC basis could do much to overcome the problem of surplusproduction, but this sort of approach stands absolutely no chance of acceptance by the policy makers of the European Economic Community. Fourth, the CAP (even if amended on the lines of the second Mansholt plan) means a diversi·on of agricultural resources to the remoter, high production Icost areas of western Erurope, whe:re production ought to be discouraged. If the aim of EEC is limited to co-ordination of national political and economic poljcies, this aspect of the CAP would not be worth supporting, since it would mean a diversion of investment resources to areas outside the UK. It could be argued that such a policywould be more appTOpriate in a United States of Europe, where tthe UK would be merely one reg·ion among others. However, we have to consider the CAP as it is in the present context of national policies. In these circumstances British farmers could fairly ask why they (and the Brit.ish consumer) should subsidise overseas competitors in the EEC at the expense of home agriculture. As the commission itself pointed out (op. cit. para 15): "the drive to improve the structure of production in agriculture and of the relevant marketing system will help the agricultural sector to close the g~p beween tthe situation in the community and the highly efficient agriculture of certain candidate countries." This is confirmation, if any wa's needed, that under the CAP British agriculture will be eXIpected to bear much of the burden of improving the efficiency of EEC agriculture ! It will be held back (indeed, its competitiveness will probably be undermined) so that its EEC rivals oan catch up ! For this reason alone, British agriculture has nothing to gain and a great deal to lose by entry into the EEC. Fifth, the CAP was intended to be self financing, with income from levies on agricultural imports finlaDcing agriculture in the EEC and community export'S. This policy has failed completely. In ·1968-1969 tJhe cost of the CAP was just over 2,400 million dollars, of which only about 890 million dollars was raised by levies. The balance came from national exchequers. In the last three years the percentage of market support expend·iture covered by levies ha'S dropped from 63.3 to 35. Such a development has been inevitable since the expansion of EEC production muf more immediate concern in the UK e han el&ewhere, because they are the · >roblems of an efficient industry in an 1• ncreasingly technological and competi- e ive world ; but an agricultural policy n or western Europe which takes no tccount of them (perhaps does not even tppreciate that pollution and conserva- ion are agricultural problems) is just1.0t good enough for the UK, !' fhe basic trouble with the CA P is that e t was designed to deal with very a lifferent problems from those facing ~riti~h agriculture today. The two Vfansholt plans have given some indica- ion that the EEC authorities are now e .ware of the need for structural changes, mt their encouragement of group '27 activity and of early retirement are onlytentative first steps towards a rational appreciation of agriculture's future role and structure. In any event, such measures do not come to grips with the rreal problems of production control and marketing efficiency. There i~ only one respect in which the CAP might be thought helpful to British agriculture ; the provision of cheap credit for farm- ing. However, two caveats must be made before farmers become euphoric at the prospect of capital on reasonable terms. First, the provision of cheapcredit for western European farms antedates tJhe CAP, and therefore fanners cannot expect cheap credit auto- matically. Second, cheap credit has to be financed by someone (u~ually the state) and there would have to be safe- guards against it being used for non- agricultural purposes. It is difficult in these circumstances to see any British government changing the present policyof refusing to provide farming with sub- ~idised capital, even in the event of British membership of the EEC. responsibility for dealing with the of pollution from effluent e jJisposal (in the case of intensive live- g ~tack, pig and poultry unit~. fertilisers, I· insecticides and antibiotics (used for e disease protection and better food 11 ~onversion in livestock and pig produc- tion). The problems of conservation (cutting down of hedges, misuse of the soil and so on) are also becoming in- e ~rea&ingly important as people learn to appreciate that short term economic rr :.:onsiderations may conflict with the interests of the environment. Even ilnimal welfare has become a thornypolitical issue, and our codes of animal welfare go far beyond anything contem- plated in the EEC. These are areas where the interests of agriculture and those of the community appear to be in conflict, e 1 conflict likely to be resolved only by'u""'""u1"" which will increase the costs )f agricultural production. ~ot one of these problems will be re- ;olved by the CAP. On the contrary, it ;vill increase the competitive pressure m farmers to go for short term profits, rrespective of the longer term consider- ttions of pollution and conservation. e ~dmibtedly, some of these problems are >f more immediate concern in the UK e han el&ewhere, because they are the · >roblems of an efficient industry in an 1• ncreasingly technological and competi- e ive world ; but an agricultural policy n or western Europe which takes no tccount of them (perhaps does not even tppreciate that pollution and conserva- ion are agricultural problems) is just1.0t good enough for the UK, !' fhe basic trouble with the CA P is that e t was designed to deal with very a lifferent problems from those facing ~riti~h agriculture today. The two Vfansholt plans have given some indica- ion that the EEC authorities are now e .ware of the need for structural changes, mt their encouragement of group '27 activity and of early retirement are onlytentative first steps towards a rational appreciation of agriculture's future role and structure. In any event, such measures do not come to grips with the rreal problems of production control and marketing efficiency. There i~ only one respect in which the CAP might be thought helpful to British agriculture ; the provision of cheap credit for farm- ing. However, two caveats must be made before farmers become euphoric at the prospect of capital on reasonable terms. First, the provision of cheapcredit for western European farms antedates tJhe CAP, and therefore fanners cannot expect cheap credit auto- matically. Second, cheap credit has to be financed by someone (u~ually the state) and there would have to be safe- guards against it being used for non- agricultural purposes. It is difficult in these circumstances to see any British government changing the present policyof refusing to provide farming with sub- ~idised capital, even in the event of British membership of the EEC. 6. conclusion The debate about EEC entry and the Conservative government's introduction of an import levy system have concen- trated attention on the future of British agriculture. This is all to the good if it means that agriculture will no longer be treated as the Cinderella of industry. The discussion has ~o far been in economic terms, but it is of importance that agriculture should be considered in social and political terms as well, The questions to be asked are not only a:bout agriculture's role in the economy, its effect on the balance of payment~ and its influence on trade with traditional food producing countries overseas ; they should be concerned with the attitude of society to the minorities Jiving in remote areas and with the problem of preserving the countryside while developing recreational facilities. There could be Socialist answers to these questions which would take account of problem~ of land ownership, taxation of inherited wealth, rising land values, pollution and conservation of the environment, equal opportunities for those who work or Jive on the land, safeguarding of consumer interests and of the interests of world agriculturaltrade. The working out of solutions to these problems would require a separate pamphlet but it must be empha~ised in this one that the laiss.ez-faire approachof the EEC embodied in the Treaty of Rome would make the discussion, plan- ning and eventual implementation of a Socialist approach to agriculture a matter of "pie in the sky." We must face up to the fact that the CAP is completely irrelevant to the cur- rent and future needs and problems of those who work in British agriculture and of the consumer. We do not need the CAP, although it does need u~. As long as the EEC remains isolated from the world market we can import cheap food from traditional suppliers and ifrom the EEC at subsidised prices. The present sit'Uation is much to our economic advantage. The disadvantageof adopting the CAP are extremely serious and the fact that our negotiatorhave accepted it in principle must be regarded as a blow to all engaged in British agriculture. Minor concessions cannot obscure the fact that the AP represents at least one step backward for British agriculture, un~ettling in its effects and offering no solution to the real problems that have to be tackled in order to ensure reasonable living standards and opportunities for those who want to work on the land. 6. conclusion The debate about EEC entry and the Conservative government's introduction of an import levy system have concen- trated attention on the future of British agriculture. This is all to the good if it means that agriculture will no longer be treated as the Cinderella of industry. The discussion has ~o far been in economic terms, but it is of importance that agriculture should be considered in social and political terms as well, The questions to be asked are not only a:bout agriculture's role in the economy, its effect on the balance of payment~ and its influence on trade with traditional food producing countries overseas ; they should be concerned with the attitude of society to the minorities Jiving in remote areas and with the problem of preserving the countryside while developing recreational facilities. There could be Socialist answers to these questions which would take account of problem~ of land ownership, taxation of inherited wealth, rising land values, pollution and conservation of the environment, equal opportunities for those who work or Jive on the land, safeguarding of consumer interests and of the interests of world agriculturaltrade. The working out of solutions to these problems would require a separate pamphlet but it must be empha~ised in this one that the laiss.ez-faire approachof the EEC embodied in the Treaty of Rome would make the discussion, plan- ning and eventual implementation of a Socialist approach to agriculture a matter of "pie in the sky." We must face up to the fact that the CAP is completely irrelevant to the cur- rent and future needs and problems of those who work in British agriculture and of the consumer. We do not need the CAP, although it does need u~. As long as the EEC remains isolated from the world market we can import cheap food from traditional suppliers and ifrom the EEC at subsidised prices. The present sit'Uation is much to our economic advantage. The disadvantageof adopting the CAP are extremely serious and the fact that our negotiatorhave accepted it in principle must be regarded as a blow to all engaged in British agriculture. Minor concessions cannot obscure the fact that the AP represents at least one step backward for British agriculture, un~ettling in its effects and offering no solution to the real problems that have to be tackled in order to ensure reasonable living standards and opportunities for those who want to work on the land. fabian society The Fa~bian Society exists to further socialist education and research. It is affiliated to the La'bour Party, both nationally and locally, and embraces all shades of Socia'list opinion within its ranks-left, right and centre. Since 1884 the Flubian Society bras enrolled thoughtful socialists who are prepared to discuss the essential questions of democratic socialism and relate them to practical plans for building socialism in a changing world. Beyond this the Society has no collective policy. It puts forward no :resolutions of a political character, but it is not an organisation of armchair socialists. Its are active in their Labour Parties, Trade Unions and Co-operatives. They are representative of the la.bour movement, practical people concerned to study and discuss problems that matter. The Society is organised nationally and locally. The national Society, directed by an elected Executive Committee, publishes pamphlets, and holds schools and conferences of many kinds. Local Societies-there are one hundred of ~hem-are selif governing and are lively centres of discussion and also undertake :esearch. 3-nquiries about membership should be 1ent to the General Secretary, F~bian )ociety, 11 Dartmouth Stlreet, London, )W1H 9BN; telephone 01-930 3077. the author Eric Deakins is MP for Walthamstow West and worked for 15 years in agricultural marketing. He is author of A faith to fight for and wrote jointly with Edmund Marshall, MP, Europe : what next? ~abian Traot 389). Cover design by Jonathan Green- Armytage. Printed by Civic Press Limited (ru), Civic Street, Glasgow, C4. 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