fabian tract 389 Europe: what next? contents 1 introduction 1 2 alternatives based on EEC 4 3 possibilities involving EFTA 9 4 a north Atlantic trade area 14 5 conclusions 18 this pamphlet, like all publications of the Fabian Society, represents not the collective view of the Society but only the view of the individuals who prepared it. The responsibility of the Society is limited to approving the publications which it issues as worthy of consideration within the Labour movement. Fabian Society, 11 Dartmouth Street London SW1. February 1969 SBN 7163 0389 2 introduction This pamphlet is written at a time when :he second British application for mem- oership of the European Economic Com- nunity (EEC), together with similar ap- olications from Ireland, Denmark and '-lorway, is still technically "on the a" of the council of ministers of community. But the President of France has publicly made it clear that has several stringent conditions to be met by Britain before he will even coun- cenance the opening of negotiations ; >ince these conditions are practically im- I I-I\.J'~"l.Ul<> for Britain to meet, at least in che near future, and since evidently the ;ommunity requires unanimity among its members on the issue of opening nego- ciations, it appears that the British appli- ~ation has proved abortive. The British Government, however, has refused to withdraw the application from the agenda of the council of ministers, where it continues to have a high priority for discussion ; but the Government's imme- diate policy towards the EEC has yet to be made clear to the British public who, in many ways, are tending to lose their enthusiasm for the topic. Already there is growing discussion about possiblealternative courses of action for Britain to follow, and this pamphlet attempts to review and assess those possibilities, on 'the assumption that Britain is denied full membership of EEC within the foresee- able future. Within Britain there is still vocal con- troversy over the value for this countryof EEC membership. The present pam- phlet is in no way intended as a contri- bution to the debate for or against EEC membership, and neither of the authors wish to express any opinion here on the mbject. Indeed, we hold dissimilar views on this great question. But we are both very conscious of the policy vacuum which appears to have existed in Britain in 1963 after the failure of the first round of negotiations for British membership of EEC, and we are concerned that the prolonged aimlessness of that periodshould not recur. We therefore see an urgent need for consideration of all con- structive alternative policies to immedi- ate EEC membership for Britain, and of the benefits likely to be gained from those alternatives, in the light of the ob- jectives claimed for full membership. Of the various alternative strategies there is first the possibility of Britain's be- coming an associated EEC member, either by herself or in the company of other countries of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the "Outer Seven". Such associated status, "embodying reci- procal rights and obligations, joint actions and special procedures", is allowed for under article 238 of the Treaty of Rome, which is the constitution of EEC, but such an agreement must have the unanimous support of the EEC council of ministers. Secondly, it has been suggested that for the present Britain should continue to act on the assumption that she will eventu- ally be a full EEC member. There are two distinct variants of this policy, one involving harmonisation of British in- ternal policies, for example, on agricul- tural support or purchase tax, with pre- sent and future EEC practice, and the other simply using every opportunity to keep the issue of British entry alive with- out committing Britain to irreversible changes in the meantime. Both these poli- cies assume that Britain must eventuallybecome a full EEC member on terms agreeable to the six. And each of these policies would make it essential for Bri- tain in the meantime not to take anyother initiatives which might make it more difficult for EEC membership even- tually to be negotiated. Related to, but distinct from, the policies of "harmonisation" and "keeping the issue alive" is the possibility of some in- termediate arrangement being devised between the EEC or certain EEC members and the countries who have made appli- cation for membership. Suggestions for such an arrangement came from various sources on the continent during 1968, but the most publicised of these was the Bene- lux plan put forward by the governments of the three Low Countries. Other sugges- tions of this nature have come from Italy and from talks between the French and German leaders. It is not easy to gener- alise about all these proposals, and it is not at present clear how far they give introduction This pamphlet is written at a time when :he second British application for mem- oership of the European Economic Com- nunity (EEC), together with similar ap- olications from Ireland, Denmark and '-lorway, is still technically "on the a" of the council of ministers of community. But the President of France has publicly made it clear that has several stringent conditions to be met by Britain before he will even coun- cenance the opening of negotiations ; >ince these conditions are practically im- I I-I\.J'~"l.Ul<> for Britain to meet, at least in che near future, and since evidently the ;ommunity requires unanimity among its members on the issue of opening nego- ciations, it appears that the British appli- ~ation has proved abortive. The British Government, however, has refused to withdraw the application from the agenda of the council of ministers, where it continues to have a high priority for discussion ; but the Government's imme- diate policy towards the EEC has yet to be made clear to the British public who, in many ways, are tending to lose their enthusiasm for the topic. Already there is growing discussion about possiblealternative courses of action for Britain to follow, and this pamphlet attempts to review and assess those possibilities, on 'the assumption that Britain is denied full membership of EEC within the foresee- able future. Within Britain there is still vocal con- troversy over the value for this countryof EEC membership. The present pam- phlet is in no way intended as a contri- bution to the debate for or against EEC membership, and neither of the authors wish to express any opinion here on the mbject. Indeed, we hold dissimilar views on this great question. But we are both very conscious of the policy vacuum which appears to have existed in Britain in 1963 after the failure of the first round of negotiations for British membership of EEC, and we are concerned that the prolonged aimlessness of that periodshould not recur. We therefore see an urgent need for consideration of all con- structive alternative policies to immedi- ate EEC membership for Britain, and of the benefits likely to be gained from those alternatives, in the light of the ob- jectives claimed for full membership. Of the various alternative strategies there is first the possibility of Britain's be- coming an associated EEC member, either by herself or in the company of other countries of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the "Outer Seven". Such associated status, "embodying reci- procal rights and obligations, joint actions and special procedures", is allowed for under article 238 of the Treaty of Rome, which is the constitution of EEC, but such an agreement must have the unanimous support of the EEC council of ministers. Secondly, it has been suggested that for the present Britain should continue to act on the assumption that she will eventu- ally be a full EEC member. There are two distinct variants of this policy, one involving harmonisation of British in- ternal policies, for example, on agricul- tural support or purchase tax, with pre- sent and future EEC practice, and the other simply using every opportunity to keep the issue of British entry alive with- out committing Britain to irreversible changes in the meantime. Both these poli- cies assume that Britain must eventuallybecome a full EEC member on terms agreeable to the six. And each of these policies would make it essential for Bri- tain in the meantime not to take anyother initiatives which might make it more difficult for EEC membership even- tually to be negotiated. Related to, but distinct from, the policies of "harmonisation" and "keeping the issue alive" is the possibility of some in- termediate arrangement being devised between the EEC or certain EEC members and the countries who have made appli- cation for membership. Suggestions for such an arrangement came from various sources on the continent during 1968, but the most publicised of these was the Bene- lux plan put forward by the governments of the three Low Countries. Other sugges- tions of this nature have come from Italy and from talks between the French and German leaders. It is not easy to gener- alise about all these proposals, and it is not at present clear how far they give guarantees of full eventual EEC membership for the candidate countries. In the present confused atmosphere there is much that has to be explored further about these arrangements, and the prospects of their implementation may vary from time to time as discussions continue. Nonetheless, this kind of strategyis a serious one for Britain to consider, and must therefore be included in this list of alternative strategies to immediate EEC membership. Fifthly, there are the various alternative strategies which would involve Britain more closely in the organisation of EFfA, which was itself born as an alternative to the free trade area closely related to the Common Market as originally intended by the architects of the Treaty of Rome. There are several ways in which EFfA could be developed, possibly by extending membership to other countries (perhaps to those of eastern Europe), possibly by adding new economic sections to the Stockholm Convention such as a common agricultural policy or a common external tariff, or possibly by increasing political cohesion within EFfA. Finally, a much publicised alternative to membership of EEC would be the introduction of a North Atlantic Free Trade Area (NAFrA). This suggestion has appeared in several forms, but nearlyalways involves an economic grouping of all EFfA countries, the United States and Canada. Some variants of this strategy would include part or all of the Commonwealth, others the countries of EEC, and still others miscellaneous countries, geographically scattered, such as Japan. These then are the six types of alternative policy to immediate British membership of EEC which we intend to consider, and in later sections each of them will be given more detailed description and discussion. We shall attempt some evaluation of the six strategies as they are described, and particularly in the conclusion, with the purpose of outliningpractical and beneficial directions which Britain could now follow. The overriding factor on which these evaluations will be based is how far each alternative policy can help secure for Britain the benefits which it is claimed membership would!' bring. Before these assessments can be made, we need to state the main advantages claimed for EEC membership. advantages claimed for membership of EEC In the first place there is the overriding · economic advantage which is envisagedas resulting from being part of the community. Essentially, the economic argument is that Britain must become partof a much larger, integrated economic unit unless her position relative to the major modern powers is to continue to decline. Only through being part of such an economic grouping can our industryfind the major home markets that it needs to meet a steady expansion of output, and only by expanding the scopeof our "internal" economy can the country become Iess vulnerable to any ill winds of world trade. The stimulus of competition within the wider free market could provide British industry with the necessary will to be far more enterprisingand innovating than of late. As a corollary to this argument in favour of closer economic and industrial co-operation is the argument in favour of Britain's participation in a technological community, thereby enjoying advantages of modern technology which are possible only in larger economic blocs. But the economic advantages of membership of an international grouping cannot be separated ultimately from the political factors which are also advanced in favour of Britain's membership of EEC. It is our conviction that the politicalarguments for joining EEC carry much more weight with the British Government than do the economic arguments. Indeed, if it is accepted that the balance of economic advantage and disadvantagecould tilt either way, the political factors are likely to assume great importance, the more so because Britain's long desired economic recovery may make less vital the economic case for British entry. Participation in the community would inevitably involve yielding some of Britain's political sovereignty, i.e. the power , decide for ourselves about important atures of our national life. Many,ople believe that the trend to large, gional economic and political blocs in e world is inevitable, and indeed neces- ry, if our political institutions are to ep pace with the technical advances :inging different parts of the world con- antly into closer communication. There ·e strongly held convictions, within ritain as elsewhere, that the nation-state a dangerous unit from the past, and tat the safety of the future depends on te breaking down of political barriers 1d the establishment of international 1thority and international co-operation. his internationalist argument leads ,any people in practical terms to the ew that Britain should begin by relax- ,g the barriers between herself and her ~arest neighbours, those of continental urope; so they say that, with EEC ready in existence, Britain's most effec- ve contribution to international har- tony would be to join the community1d then seek to extend it farther. To ,me internationalists, EEC is therefore a step along the road to world gov- ·nment. hese two main lines of argument, with teir necessary corollaries in terms of chnology, defence and culture, form te basic case put forward in favour of ritish membership of EEC. In this pam- 1let we make no attempt to test the llidity of these arguments or to discuss hether or not the advantages claimed •r Britain would be so beneficial. Fur- termore, we are not concerned here ith the arguments which are used ~ainst British membership of EEC, how- rer forceful and apposite those argu- ents may be. The economic and poli- ;al claims made in favour of British embership of EEC have been briefly de- ribed here in order to serve as yard- icks by which the six possible alterna- •e strategies can be evaluated. , decide for ourselves about important atures of our national life. Many,ople believe that the trend to large, gional economic and political blocs in e world is inevitable, and indeed neces- ry, if our political institutions are to ep pace with the technical advances :inging different parts of the world con- antly into closer communication. There ·e strongly held convictions, within ritain as elsewhere, that the nation-state a dangerous unit from the past, and tat the safety of the future depends on te breaking down of political barriers 1d the establishment of international 1thority and international co-operation. his internationalist argument leads ,any people in practical terms to the ew that Britain should begin by relax- ,g the barriers between herself and her ~arest neighbours, those of continental urope; so they say that, with EEC ready in existence, Britain's most effec- ve contribution to international har- tony would be to join the community1d then seek to extend it farther. To ,me internationalists, EEC is therefore a step along the road to world gov- ·nment. hese two main lines of argument, with teir necessary corollaries in terms of chnology, defence and culture, form te basic case put forward in favour of ritish membership of EEC. In this pam- 1let we make no attempt to test the llidity of these arguments or to discuss hether or not the advantages claimed •r Britain would be so beneficial. Fur- termore, we are not concerned here ith the arguments which are used ~ainst British membership of EEC, how- rer forceful and apposite those argu- ents may be. The economic and poli- ;al claims made in favour of British embership of EEC have been briefly de- ribed here in order to serve as yard- icks by which the six possible alterna- •e strategies can be evaluated. 2 . alternatives based on EEC ASSOCIATE MEMBERSHIP OF EEC During the press conference mDecember, 1967, when General de Gaulle announced his alleged "veto" of the second British application for EEC membership, he referred to the possibility of some form of association between Britain and EEC which would avoid what he considered to be the disruptive effects of British full membership. He did not elaborate further on this suggestion nor was it taken up officially anywhere else, largely because the immediate reaction of the British Government was to emphasisethat Britain is interested only in full EEC membership or nothing at all. In the light of more recent events, however, it has become apparent that Britain has little to gain, so far as EEC is concerned, from her attitude of "all or nothing", and it could be important to seek clarification and expansion of the French President's suggestion, if only to see exactly what he had in mind. Presumably such a form of association would involve other EFTA countries besides Britain, and there are signs that they are growing a little impatient with the British "all or nothing" attitude. They may even take initiative towards EEC bythemselves if Britain continues to dally, or they may decide to pursue the aim of closer economic unity between themselves. Moreover, when one turns in the Treatyof Rome to the ection concerning association agreements, it is clear that wide flexibility is permissible on this question. For article 238 of the treaty contains the word : "The community may conclude with a third country, a union of tate or an international organisation, agreement creating an as ociation embodying reciprocal right and obligations, joint actions and pecial procedures. Such agreement hall be concluded by the council acting by mean of a unanimou vote and after con ulting the assembly". As tanley Henig, MP, ha pointed out, in the magazine Encounter (March 1968, pp60-64), this article of the Rome Treaty"provides only the loosest framework, in which the detailed arrangements can be varied according to circumstances". One thing, however, is clear, namely that associate members have no voting rights in EEC affairs, and consequently have no say in the development of political cohesion within the community. Such an arrangement, if permanent, would secure none of the political benefits which would come with full British membership of EEC, and we are therefore bound to conclude that a policy of permanent associated status is not an attractive one Britain. However, as Mr. Henig goes on to say it might be possible to negotiate an agreement of association which the Government hopes would lead eventually to full British membership of EEC, of course new negotiations would to be held at that stage. There is cient flexibility in article 238 for inclusion in an association agreement of a promise that negotiations for full membership would be opened at a later stage. Such a promise might be sufficient to meet British requirements, but on the other hand it might still prove impossible for the French to support, and of course unanimity is essential in reaching any association agreement. Still, there could be no harm in exploring farther how the French would react to the principle of such an arrangement. What is more, the flexibility of the article on association is its weakness as well as its strength, for it can lead to interminable manoeuvres and confusion in negotiations, as has happened in the talks with Austria, which have now gone on for three years and are no nearer ettlement. On the other hand, Greece and Turkey are now fully fledged as EE associate member , and may eventually become full members. So much of the issue of Briti h a ociate membership of EEC rest on imponderable factor that it is impossible to ayat pre ent what uch member hip might entail and where it might lead. In thi< situation Britain might do well to ma Lrther soundings as to what the details ' an association agreement might be, trticularly with regard to a promise for ~ening later negotiations on full mem- ~rship. But it is clear that a permanentTangement of only associate status ould fall far short of what Britain has ~en trying to achieve in her two appli- ltions for full membership. keeping e issue alive" ollowing the failure of the EEC coun- 1 of ministers in December 1967 to ~ree about proceeding with Britain's embership application, the Government 1s persistently used every means of !eping the issue of British entry to the :.c alive and a subject of discussion nong the six. Whether or not this pol- y turns out to involve harmonisation : British domestic policies with present 1d future EEC practice, the policy as- Lmes that ultimately the British appli- ttion must succeed. Such a policy would ~ justified provided, among other things, tat our chances of eventual success are Jod, where the importance of "even- , tal" depends on the time scale we are ;ing. For the purposes of this discus- on we mean by "eventual" no more tan ten years ahead. On this time scale JW should we rate our chances of entry? ne obvious point is that, the more >tablished the EEC becomes, the more it ill become set in its ways with vested tterests and the more difficulty it will 1d in making concessions to help Bri- in adapt her agricultural policy and >reign trade to the community systems. his is particularly true of alterations tat would be needed in the community's ~ricultural .policy to safeguard the posi- on of British producers of pigmeat and tilk, and to protect New Zealand lamb 1d dairy products and sugar from the aribbean and Mauritius. We are assum- g that a British government, particu- rly a Labour government, would insist 1 such safeguards before accepting1try into the EEC. no less important point to consider is te position of the French President ; his resent unpopularity with those who ad- vocate Britain's immediate membershipof the EEC suggests that he is widely seen as the major obstacle in our .path. But it is more likely that General de Gaulle's views on Britain and Europe are shared by his party generally than it is that his policy is likely to be reversed when he ceases to be President. It may be argued that this point is irrelevant since the Pre- sident's successor may well be someone representative of the left in French poli- tics and favourable to British entry, like M. Mitterand, although this seems less likely after the French election results of June 1968. However, it is impossible to tell how effective the Federation of the Left would be as a government, for it has so far been unable to agree on a common foreign policy and might there- fore find difficulty in agreeing on a com- mon attitude to the question of Britain's membership. We should also bear in mind that France under a different Pre- sident might be in a weaker position on the European stage ; Germany would then be even stronger within the EEC and might not necessarily wish to entertain the prospect of a rival such as Britain. It is therefore not self evident that the departure of General de Gaulle will make British membership of the EEC a foregone conclusion. Indeed, whether or not the General remains in power, one further objection by France is that Bri- tain is not fully "European" so long as she has close links with the USA and non- European defence commitments. In spiteof last year's defence cuts, withdrawal from Singapore will not be completed until the end of 1971, by which time the Conservative opposition hopes to be in power, and they are comitted to retain· ing our military presence in the Far East. In any event Britain will still have obli- gations to SEATO and to CENTO . So far as our links with the USA are concerned, the Government has repeatedly avowed its belief in the North Atlantic partnership between the USA and Western Europe. Since most of our foreign and economic policy depends on the maintenance of such links, we do not envisage a British government breaking them as the priceof British entry into EEC. Lrther soundings as to what the details ' an association agreement might be, trticularly with regard to a promise for ~ening later negotiations on full mem- ~rship. But it is clear that a permanentTangement of only associate status ould fall far short of what Britain has ~en trying to achieve in her two appli- ltions for full membership. keeping e issue alive" ollowing the failure of the EEC coun- 1 of ministers in December 1967 to ~ree about proceeding with Britain's embership application, the Government 1s persistently used every means of !eping the issue of British entry to the :.c alive and a subject of discussion nong the six. Whether or not this pol- y turns out to involve harmonisation : British domestic policies with present 1d future EEC practice, the policy as- Lmes that ultimately the British appli- ttion must succeed. Such a policy would ~ justified provided, among other things, tat our chances of eventual success are Jod, where the importance of "even- , tal" depends on the time scale we are ;ing. For the purposes of this discus- on we mean by "eventual" no more tan ten years ahead. On this time scale JW should we rate our chances of entry? ne obvious point is that, the more >tablished the EEC becomes, the more it ill become set in its ways with vested tterests and the more difficulty it will 1d in making concessions to help Bri- in adapt her agricultural policy and >reign trade to the community systems. his is particularly true of alterations tat would be needed in the community's ~ricultural .policy to safeguard the posi- on of British producers of pigmeat and tilk, and to protect New Zealand lamb 1d dairy products and sugar from the aribbean and Mauritius. We are assum- g that a British government, particu- rly a Labour government, would insist 1 such safeguards before accepting1try into the EEC. no less important point to consider is te position of the French President ; his resent unpopularity with those who ad- vocate Britain's immediate membershipof the EEC suggests that he is widely seen as the major obstacle in our .path. But it is more likely that General de Gaulle's views on Britain and Europe are shared by his party generally than it is that his policy is likely to be reversed when he ceases to be President. It may be argued that this point is irrelevant since the Pre- sident's successor may well be someone representative of the left in French poli- tics and favourable to British entry, like M. Mitterand, although this seems less likely after the French election results of June 1968. However, it is impossible to tell how effective the Federation of the Left would be as a government, for it has so far been unable to agree on a common foreign policy and might there- fore find difficulty in agreeing on a com- mon attitude to the question of Britain's membership. We should also bear in mind that France under a different Pre- sident might be in a weaker position on the European stage ; Germany would then be even stronger within the EEC and might not necessarily wish to entertain the prospect of a rival such as Britain. It is therefore not self evident that the departure of General de Gaulle will make British membership of the EEC a foregone conclusion. Indeed, whether or not the General remains in power, one further objection by France is that Bri- tain is not fully "European" so long as she has close links with the USA and non- European defence commitments. In spiteof last year's defence cuts, withdrawal from Singapore will not be completed until the end of 1971, by which time the Conservative opposition hopes to be in power, and they are comitted to retain· ing our military presence in the Far East. In any event Britain will still have obli- gations to SEATO and to CENTO . So far as our links with the USA are concerned, the Government has repeatedly avowed its belief in the North Atlantic partnership between the USA and Western Europe. Since most of our foreign and economic policy depends on the maintenance of such links, we do not envisage a British government breaking them as the priceof British entry into EEC. Again, there is likely to be continuing objection to Britain's membership on the grounds that Britain's methods of approach to problems are different from those in the EEC member states. One has only to look at our constitutional, legal and political structures to appreciate this point. Although the relative positions of Britain and the EEC in those respects maychange in the next ten years there is no guarantee of their drawing more closelytogether and so this objection to British membership may remain. All these factors may well continue throughout the next decade to give EEC members grounds for opposing Britain's admission. There is therefore no certainty of a successful outcome to a British policy of persistently seeking EEC membership, irrespective of what such a policy might involve for Britain in the meantime. Turning to consider the short term implications of such a .policy, we see that they clearly fall into two categories, depending on whether or not the Government wishes to pursue a gradualharmonisation with EEC practices or not. (Other obvious policies, such as strengthening the British economy, which would remove one possible objection to British entry, are essential for Britain irrespective of policies towards Europe-although some pessimists suggest that the British economy cannot be genuinelystrengthened unless Britain is part of a larger economic unit like EEC.) If harmonisation is to be attempted, the most obvious measures to be carried out will involve reconstructing agricultural support and trade and the system of indirect taxation. However, there is no benefit in making drastic changes to British agricultural and trading policies if there are to be no compensating advantages arising from EEC membership at the same time. When we examine other areas of our national life which are potentially in conflict with the implications of EEC membership, such as our system of common law and our immigration policy, the changes involved would be extremely radical and unlikely to be acceptable to the British people except perhaps as the key to a glorious future leading a united Europe. Moreover the British Government's atti· tude to the idea of harmonising henceforth with the community way of life was set out clearly by the Foreign Secre· tary at the Western European Union meeting in January 1968, when he said that Britain could not accept the idea that it should take unilateral steps to adjust the British economy to the eventuality of EEC membership without knowing for certain that Britain would ultimately be admitted. But from the arguments given earlier we conclude that no such guarantee is likely to be forthcom· ing from EEC members so that these incompatible positions make the strategyof harmonisation unfeasible. We therefore turn to consider what initi· atives the British government could be taking in the interim period on the inter· national scene which might facilitate eventual entry into EEC, initiatives which do not hinder Britain's freedom of action in other directions and do not impose any great sacrifice on Britain without ad· vantage in return. The most likely fields of policy to be explored in this connec· tion concern defence and technology. In the first place, the countries of western Europe, since the second world war, have had the common defence need of deterring totalitarian communism ; this common need has been expressed in practical terms through the organisationsof NATO and WEU. A more specificallyEuropean, and a more integrated supra national defence organisation was attempted in the form of the EuropeanDefence Community, but progress with this was halted in 1954 when the French parliament failed to ratify the arrangement, chiefly because of the lack of British participation. The situation is now rather ironically reversed, with the hint on the part of the French that they might withdraw from NATO in 1969 when the binding parts of the original 1949 treaty expire, while the British Government, in the words of the Supplementary Defence White Paper of July 1968, maintain that: "In Defence, as in every other field, the first and fundamental assumption on which the Government believes that Britain must base her future policy is the need for closer unity in Europe." o these ends the present British Govern- ent has earmarked a greater contribu- ::m towards the forces of NATO, namely"mobile task force" of men, ships and rcraft. There is, consequently, great ope for further British negotiationsith members of EEC on these issues of >llective defence requirements--quiteJart from any considerations involved the Treaty of Rome-and these con- . cts are very likely to help a rapport!tween Britain and Europe, thus facili- ting possible future British entry to EEC. he only snag in this argument is that, st as France is the one EEC member .Jt of step on the question of British embership of EEC, so too France is out ' step on the questions of collective orth Atlantic defence. That being the Lse, one wonders how far co-operationdefence, while very necessary and udable in itself, can help overcome the a! stumbling blocks to British member- lip of EEC. [ore hopeful progress has been achieved the realm of technological co-opera- Jn between Britain and western Europ- m countries, although there remains vir- ally unbounded scope for future de- ~lopments in this field. For one thing, common defence commitments are ·awn up, then the physical means of ·ocuring those commitments, i.e., the m-nuclear weapons which would make ' the deterrent, will need to be pro- lced and constantly developed in the ~ht of new technological research. Con- quently, defence co-operation could ad quite naturally to technological co- Jeration. But openings for joint techno- gical ventures occur in many other :lds of government policy, in civil avia- m and other transport, in fuel and >wer (particularly in the peaceful uses · nuclear energy and the building of 1clear reactor generators) and in tele- >mmunications. Indeed, all the work of e British Ministry of Technology cries l1t for co-operation on an international ale. And, of course, so far as Western 1rope is concerned, such co-operationould be bound to help foster better utual understanding, in particular lead- g Britain into an easier relationshipith EEC countries on which British EEC membership could be more fi·rmly based. Whether this is enough to overcome the French problem is a matter almost wholly for conjecture. Indeed, it is quitelikely that the French, seeing the ad- vantages for themselves of technological co-operation with Britain, will continue with such a programme without anythought of its relevance to EEC. Similarly, from the British point of view it would be advantageous to enter into such co- operation even if we had definitely made up our minds not to seek EEC member- ship. Technological co-operation, and in- deed new defence co-operation, while helpful in fostering contacts and rapportbetween Britain and EEC members, is therefore only peripheral to the issue of British EEC membership. The policy of "keeping the issue alive without harmonisation" is therefore more a policy of attitudes rather than a pro- gramme of detailed practicalities. The success of the policy depends in large measure on the considerations described earlier, while the effect of any accom- panying measures would be beneficial whether the overall policy is successful or not. other recent proposals During January 1968 the three Benelux states produced a plan, subsequently ap- proved at a WEU meeting, for a confer- ence of all EEC members and the four candidate governments to discuss means of further co-operation outside the scopeof the Treaty of Rome. The plan also envisaged consultations between as many western European states as possible on political issues. It is not yet clear which line would find more favour with Britain, the wider political approach or the nar- rower concentration on items of legaland technological co-operation. What is clear, however, is that the Benelux pro- posals represent the first recognition by any EEC members that economic and political divisions in western Europe can be healed only by goodwill on both sides. Until this plan was put forward, EEC countries appeared to take the view o these ends the present British Govern- ent has earmarked a greater contribu- ::m towards the forces of NATO, namely"mobile task force" of men, ships and rcraft. There is, consequently, great ope for further British negotiationsith members of EEC on these issues of >llective defence requirements--quiteJart from any considerations involved the Treaty of Rome-and these con- . cts are very likely to help a rapport!tween Britain and Europe, thus facili- ting possible future British entry to EEC. he only snag in this argument is that, st as France is the one EEC member .Jt of step on the question of British embership of EEC, so too France is out ' step on the questions of collective orth Atlantic defence. That being the Lse, one wonders how far co-operationdefence, while very necessary and udable in itself, can help overcome the a! stumbling blocks to British member- lip of EEC. [ore hopeful progress has been achieved the realm of technological co-opera- Jn between Britain and western Europ- m countries, although there remains vir- ally unbounded scope for future de- ~lopments in this field. For one thing, common defence commitments are ·awn up, then the physical means of ·ocuring those commitments, i.e., the m-nuclear weapons which would make ' the deterrent, will need to be pro- lced and constantly developed in the ~ht of new technological research. Con- quently, defence co-operation could ad quite naturally to technological co- Jeration. But openings for joint techno- gical ventures occur in many other :lds of government policy, in civil avia- m and other transport, in fuel and >wer (particularly in the peaceful uses · nuclear energy and the building of 1clear reactor generators) and in tele- >mmunications. Indeed, all the work of e British Ministry of Technology cries l1t for co-operation on an international ale. And, of course, so far as Western 1rope is concerned, such co-operationould be bound to help foster better utual understanding, in particular lead- g Britain into an easier relationshipith EEC countries on which British EEC membership could be more fi·rmly based. Whether this is enough to overcome the French problem is a matter almost wholly for conjecture. Indeed, it is quitelikely that the French, seeing the ad- vantages for themselves of technological co-operation with Britain, will continue with such a programme without anythought of its relevance to EEC. Similarly, from the British point of view it would be advantageous to enter into such co- operation even if we had definitely made up our minds not to seek EEC member- ship. Technological co-operation, and in- deed new defence co-operation, while helpful in fostering contacts and rapportbetween Britain and EEC members, is therefore only peripheral to the issue of British EEC membership. The policy of "keeping the issue alive without harmonisation" is therefore more a policy of attitudes rather than a pro- gramme of detailed practicalities. The success of the policy depends in large measure on the considerations described earlier, while the effect of any accom- panying measures would be beneficial whether the overall policy is successful or not. other recent proposals During January 1968 the three Benelux states produced a plan, subsequently ap- proved at a WEU meeting, for a confer- ence of all EEC members and the four candidate governments to discuss means of further co-operation outside the scopeof the Treaty of Rome. The plan also envisaged consultations between as many western European states as possible on political issues. It is not yet clear which line would find more favour with Britain, the wider political approach or the nar- rower concentration on items of legaland technological co-operation. What is clear, however, is that the Benelux pro- posals represent the first recognition by any EEC members that economic and political divisions in western Europe can be healed only by goodwill on both sides. Until this plan was put forward, EEC countries appeared to take the view that no form of co-operation outside the confines of the Treaty of Rome was worthwhile. The Benelux plan is therefore to be welcomed for the spirit it shows, although there is some dangerthat its effect will be lost in the welter of debate which has surrounded it and similar proposals since their enunciation. One such set of proposals emanated from the meeting during February 1968, between the West German Chancellor and the French President, a meeting which disappointed those who were hoping that German pressure would force France to reconsider her opposition to immediate British membership of EEC. French economic weakness following their recent internal crisis may enable the West Germans to press them to accept a more promising attitude towards the candidate count·ries ; although the French in their weakness may be even more reluctant to subject themselves to new international competition. The February meeting did, however, result in some clarification of the French attitude to an arrangementbetween the community and candidate countries, so that the Scandinavian states have been encouraged to discuss their own attitudes to such an arrangement. Britain's policy of seeking full EEC membership (or a guarantee of eventual membership) on an "all or nothing" basis could result in some EFrA members' making their own trading arrangements with the EEC without Britain, and so weakening EFrA. With regard to all these proposals currently under discussion, the Government has nothing to lose by exploring, as far as possible, what exactly the proposals entail and what !S their likelihood of success. However, nc.ne of these proposals is likely to be seriously enttrtained by the Gow rnPtent unless it offers the definite prospect of full EEC membershipfor Britain. In no way should Britain allow EEC members to keep her on a string. 3. possibilities involving EFTA Vhen we talk of EFrA as an alternative ) full membership of EEC, we are not .1ggesting that the strengthening of EFrA 1ill bring with it the same advantages as ave been claimed for full membership f EEC. We are trying to point to ways 1 which EFrA could be strengthened so 1at the impact of those disadvantages :emming from Britain's exclusion from EC is reduced. We shall therefore examle the basis on which EFrA operates, 1ggest possibilities for further develop- lent and attempt to evaluate them by omparison with the advantages claimed Jr EEC membership. 'he nature and scope of EFrA are dened in the Convention of Stockholm, gned by Austria, Denmark, Norway, ortugal, Sweden, Switzerland and the Tnited Kingdom in January 1960. Article sets out the objectives of the associaon which include inter alia a sustained xpansion of economic activity in each 1ember state, fair trading competition nd the development and expansion of •orld trade. Article 30 adds that memer states intend to pursue economic and nancial policies so as to promote the bjectives of the association. The main tethod chosen to achieve these ob~ ctives was the creation of a free ·ade area in industrial goods between te members. In March 1961 Finland gned an agreement with the association ·hich, in effect, made her the eighthtember. ITA is a free trade area of 100 million eople, with no internal tariffs or quantative restrictions on industrial products. 1 addition, the association recognises te importance of removing non-tariff u riers to trade which, following the .ennedy round, are likely to emerge as te major obstacles to further trade ex: msion. The association tries to prevent >ea! charges causing discrimination beveen home produced goods and those ·am other member states. To ensure tir competition for all EFrA producers, is recognised that the association will :tve to examine such government polies as aids to domestic producers, buy. g policies of nationalised industries and gislation dealing with restrictive prac tices and trading specifications. In the same way as EEC, EFrA has also been concerned that none of its members should discriminate against nationals of other members. In pursuance of this policy the association has stipulated that nationals of all member states should be treated equally with respect to the establishment and operation of economic enterprises in the interests of free competition. Moreover, unl.ike EEC, EFrA has, as a clear objective, the promotion of full employment (Article 2(a)) ; indeed, an appreciable rise in unemployment caused by increasing imports of a commodityfrom other members of EFrA is a factor allowing the member concerned to impose tempora·ry quantitative restrictions. On the question of trade with third countries, i.e. non-members, EFrA allows each member to fix its own tariffs, but in addition, the association has power to negotiate trade arrangements on behalf of all members ; these can take the form of accession or association (Article 41). Furthermore, the effect of EFrA rules, i.e. the "process" criterion, is to allow many imports from third countries which are used in EFrA manufactured products to participate in the benefits of an industrial free trade area. Equally important is the pragmatic approach adopted by the association to achieve its objectives. " It has remained a belief in EFrA that it is not fruitful to attempt to solve all possible problems in advance, rather than attempting to anticipate all future contingencies the writers of the convention were content to indicate the procedure by which problems could be dealt with as they arose and by which the association itself could be adapted to changing needs and circumstances" (T. Jantzen, The operationof a free trade area) . This flexibility is seen, for example, in the operation of the EFrA Council : there is no fixed limit to the scope of its powers although its decisions are binding on member states. Decisions involving increased obligations fm members must be unanimous; other decisions relating to complaints or the relaxation of obligations are by majority vote. It should be emphasised, however, that the creation of a superstate is in no way an objective of EFTA; indeed, there is provision for member states to withdraw from the association by giving 12 months' notice. EFTA is based on a belief that the way to overcome economic nationalism is by free trade and cooperation instead of by building up a large supranational unit to which member states will ultimately be subordinate. Having examined the basis on which EFTA operates, we now proceed to explore the possibilities of its further development. There appear to be three general areas for such exploration: one involving closer economic ties between members, including agricultural co-operation ; the second involving greater political cohesion within the association ; and the third involving stronger links with countries outside EFTA. When considering closer economic ties between members, a significant possibility would be to give the market protectionagainst competition from third countries by the adoption of a common external tariff as in EEC. This idea has not been acceptable to EFTA members so far because the concept of a customs union runs counter to the free trade objectiveswhich were responsible for the inauguration of the association in 1960. It will be recalled that talks between non EEC and EEC members broke down prior to 1960, because the non EEC members were concerned far more with international trade expansion than with a common tradingpolicy towards third countries. Againstthis background, proposals for a common external tariff for EFTA, even on industrial goods, are unlikely to meet approval unless there has been a fundamental change of heart by EFTA members on the question of a common trade policy towards the rest of the world. This might therefore be a matter for discussion within EFTA. In such discussions, much would depend on the attitude of, and the lead given by, the British Government. To suggest copying the CET and its protective mechanism of various levies, as established by EEC, could seriously prejudice the chances of continuing world trade expansion and is unlikely to be acceptable to EFTA members. We hope that any such discussions would take account of the tariff levels as they will stand after the Kennedy round reductions. It may be pos· sible to fit a common external tariff, certainly for industrial products, at the lowest level within EFTA instead of at the arithmetic average of members' existing tariffs, as within EEC. This could be considered a further positive step towards international free trade. Another possibility for strengthening EFTA economically would be to achieve closer co-operation on agricultural trade and development. Under Article 21 of the convention (which excludes agricultural goods from the free trade provisions) the council of EFTA does have power to amend both the article itself and also the list of products, mainly agricultural, which are exempt from the general provision relating to industrial goods. By taking either of these courses of action the council could declare a free trade area in agricultural goods; although such a drastic step is unlikely to take place in the foreseeable future. Under Article 22, furthermore, the members recognise that their agricultural policies are designed "(a) to promote increased productivity and the rational and economic development of production; (b) to provide a -reasonable degree of market stability and adequate supplies to consumers at reasonable prices; and (c) to ensure an adequate standard of living to persons engaged in agriculture". Theyhave to pay due regard to the interests of other members in the export of agricultural goods. One objective of the association is "to facilitate an expansion of (agricultural) trade which will provide reasonable reciprocity to member states whose economies depend to a great extent on exports of agricultural goods." Another way of expanding agricultural trade within EFTA is by bilateral trading agreements between members. This method has been used on occasion to provide duty free access for agricultural exports to a particular member. Such agreements remain in force for as long iS the convention ; many tariff provis. ons in them apply to other member ;tates not parties to these agreements but ~xporting the goods in question. As a ·esult of these measures and the general ~xpansion in world trade there has been 1 steady growth of intra EPTA agricul: ural trade by 50 per cent from 1961 to .1966. However, this expansion has been ;lower than the expansion of trade in ndustrial goods, which probably shows :he scope existing for further agricul: ural co-operation in the association. Since 1964 there has been an annual review within EFTA of its t·rade in agriculmral goods, with a view to securing fur: her expansion. The successive reviews 1ave been primarily concerned to elucidate the facts about agricultural policy and production in each member state, no easy task because of the variety and ingenuity of the methods used by governments to protect their farmers from the effects of overseas competition and to ensure them a reasonable standard of living. The 1967 review offered a cautious assessment of the situation, pointing out that the attainment of a better overall balance between production and consumption within EFTA would depend on the agricultural and import policies of member states like Britain, who are largeimporters of agricultural goods. Since pressure is growing within Britain for import saving policies in food, the onlyhope for a major expansion in EFTA agricultural trade would appear to be if Denmark agreed to take more industrial exports from Britain to remedy what is :1t present a very one sided balance of trade between the two countries. lt may be asked why EEC should have been able to adopt a common agricultural policy and yet EFTA has not done so. There are two main reasons for the situation. Firstly, EFTA is not nearly as >elf sufficient in agricultural production as is EEC. Moreover EFTA's pattern of agricultural production and trade is more diverse than that of EEC, a larger proportion of the association's imports and exports being with third countries. Secondly, it is recognised that to aim at agri cultural self sufficiency would disrupttraditional patterns of agricultural trade with third countries ; this is what has happened as a result of the EEC system of variable import levies. Furthermore, a uniform price level for each commodityof agricultural production within EFTA (as the EEC has done) would encourage production expansion over and above the degree of self sufficiency desired. This would lead to the very problems of over production which are beginning to cause difficulties within EEC. The solution adopted there-massive export subsidies- merely injects these difficulties into world agricultural trade. Internationa-l irresponsibility of this kind is not what we would wish to see emerge from any expansion in the agricultural trade of EFTA. Where EFTA can help itself and the cause of world agricultural trade is by extending the concept of commodity agreements between members to embrace third countries dependent on agricultural exports to Europe. The idea of international commodity agreements is not new, but little has been done to put it into practice. However, after the comparative success of the Kennedy round in lowering tariffs on industrial goods, there is likely to be greater pressure by those countries exporting agricultural products at world market prices for some agreement on the regulation of this international trade. The 1968 UNCTAD meeting was concerned with this problem. It is within EFTA's power to take a lead at future conferences by offering to negotiate international commodity agreements for meat and dairy products, limiting or eliminating export subsidies, negotiating international prices and regularising food aid to underdeveloped countries ; such a step might force the EEC also to consider revising its present archaic agriculturalpolicies. If some kind of international order can be made out of the presentjungle of international agricultural trade, EFTA will benefit by the increased earning power of underdeveloped countries leading to a general expansion of trade between rich and poor countries. Having considered the economic possibilities of strengthening EFTA, we now 12 turn to the question of political develop- ments within the association. EFfA is at present an economic association ; it has no political content, nor is there any pos- sibility of its developing into a super- state which many people, including the British Government, want from EEC membership. Within the association, how- ever, there exist two groupings-namelythe Nordic council and the meeting of EFrA parliamentarians-which provide some measure of political consultation and co-operation between certain mem- ber states. There is nothing new about the idea of co-operation between the four Scandi- navian states (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland). In 1907 members of their parliaments set up the Northern Inter- parliamentary Union as a private organ- isation. Later moves to formalise the links between the states gained strength, and even before the second world war there was growing official recognitionthat the long experience of co-operationin the region should be embodied in a permanent organisation. There were set- backs during the war of 1939-45 and in the early stages of the cold war, mainly because of Finland's tortuous relation- ship with the USSR and because of the split over membership of NATO . Never- theless the movement to political co-oper- ation was renewed in those spheres where all four states had common interests. As an historian of the movement has putit: " . . . the age long relationships be- tween Denmark and Norway and be- tween Sweden and Finland, left indelible marks on the languages, government, legislation, administration of justice, social life and literature .. . Unbreakable bonds had been tied, similarities and con- formities established. The spirit of soli- darity created over long and importantperiods is still very much alive and con- stitutes a valuable foundation for the present day endeavours of Scandinavian co-operation " (F . Wendt, The N ordic Council and co-operation in Scandina- via) . All four countries have a compas- sionate respect for human rights which underlies their modern and progressive social legislation. They have developedtheir democratic systems on similar lines and have placed great emphasis on in- dividual social security. They have also enjoyed political stability. After the second world war there was growing co-operation at official level to deal with social problems, legislation, cultural affairs, communications and economic co-operation. In 1952 these. arrangements were formalised when the Nordic Council was set up, Iceland also joining in. It consists of representatives of the five governments and MPS elected by the parliaments in proportion to partystrengths. Its deliberations are recognised as sufficiently important for the primeministers and foreign ministers regularly to attend its meetings, which are held annually, although ministerial meetings take place more often. The council can deal with any matters relating to two m more of the five countries. Its role is consultative but none the less valuable. Its working methods are similar to those employed in EFrA, the emphasis being on flexibility. It is a practical body for deal- ing with current problems, co-ordinating existing forms of Scandinavian co-opera- tion and ensuring that the respective par- liaments give more attention to such matters. A further development expected in the near future is the institution of a secretariat. The council has been able to negotiate a convention introducing a common labour market, enabling work- ers to take up jobs in the territory of anymember, and a social security conven- tion. Since 1966, EFrA and the Nordic Council have held meetings to revie\\ work they are both doing. An EFfA ob· server now attends the full meetings oJ the council and reports back to EFfA council. The question for our consideration h whether Britain can and should join in this work, either by promoting links be·· tween herself and the Nordic Council 01 by taking steps to set up a similar of body that would include all EFf} members, i.e., can the example of tht Nordic Council be used as a basis foi strengthening political cohesion withir EFfA, and ultimately within Europe a~ a whole ? We are of the opinion that thi~ is a very real and desirable possibility, tc 12 turn to the question of political develop- ments within the association. EFfA is at present an economic association ; it has no political content, nor is there any pos- sibility of its developing into a super- state which many people, including the British Government, want from EEC membership. Within the association, how- ever, there exist two groupings-namelythe Nordic council and the meeting of EFrA parliamentarians-which provide some measure of political consultation and co-operation between certain mem- ber states. There is nothing new about the idea of co-operation between the four Scandi- navian states (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland). In 1907 members of their parliaments set up the Northern Inter- parliamentary Union as a private organ- isation. Later moves to formalise the links between the states gained strength, and even before the second world war there was growing official recognitionthat the long experience of co-operationin the region should be embodied in a permanent organisation. There were set- backs during the war of 1939-45 and in the early stages of the cold war, mainly because of Finland's tortuous relation- ship with the USSR and because of the split over membership of NATO . Never- theless the movement to political co-oper- ation was renewed in those spheres where all four states had common interests. As an historian of the movement has putit: " . . . the age long relationships be- tween Denmark and Norway and be- tween Sweden and Finland, left indelible marks on the languages, government, legislation, administration of justice, social life and literature .. . Unbreakable bonds had been tied, similarities and con- formities established. The spirit of soli- darity created over long and importantperiods is still very much alive and con- stitutes a valuable foundation for the present day endeavours of Scandinavian co-operation " (F . Wendt, The N ordic Council and co-operation in Scandina- via) . All four countries have a compas- sionate respect for human rights which underlies their modern and progressive social legislation. They have developedtheir democratic systems on similar lines and have placed great emphasis on in- dividual social security. They have also enjoyed political stability. After the second world war there was growing co-operation at official level to deal with social problems, legislation, cultural affairs, communications and economic co-operation. In 1952 these. arrangements were formalised when the Nordic Council was set up, Iceland also joining in. It consists of representatives of the five governments and MPS elected by the parliaments in proportion to partystrengths. Its deliberations are recognised as sufficiently important for the primeministers and foreign ministers regularly to attend its meetings, which are held annually, although ministerial meetings take place more often. The council can deal with any matters relating to two m more of the five countries. Its role is consultative but none the less valuable. Its working methods are similar to those employed in EFrA, the emphasis being on flexibility. It is a practical body for deal- ing with current problems, co-ordinating existing forms of Scandinavian co-opera- tion and ensuring that the respective par- liaments give more attention to such matters. A further development expected in the near future is the institution of a secretariat. The council has been able to negotiate a convention introducing a common labour market, enabling work- ers to take up jobs in the territory of anymember, and a social security conven- tion. Since 1966, EFrA and the Nordic Council have held meetings to revie\\ work they are both doing. An EFfA ob· server now attends the full meetings oJ the council and reports back to EFfA council. The question for our consideration h whether Britain can and should join in this work, either by promoting links be·· tween herself and the Nordic Council 01 by taking steps to set up a similar of body that would include all EFf} members, i.e., can the example of tht Nordic Council be used as a basis foi strengthening political cohesion withir EFfA, and ultimately within Europe a~ a whole ? We are of the opinion that thi~ is a very real and desirable possibility, tc e made easier because Britain has much t common with the Scandinavian coun •ies, politically, socially and culturally. /hether Britain should initiate discus- ons with a view to her attending meettgs of the Nordic Council and particiating in the work of that body, or •hether she should aim to set up a simitr, but wider, body covering EFI'A counies is a matter for diplomatic consulttions. Because of close traditional ties ashrined in the Nordic Council, it seems ·iser for Britain to aim at setting up new body. Such an organisation would ave no shortage of tasks, for instance, t seeking closer co-ordination of policies f social welfare, employment and taxaon. Co-operation of this kind would be aluable in itself, but is unlikely to prolde a firm basis for future politicalnity. he second political grouping within FTA is the meeting of EFI'A parliamentrians. This consists of MPS from EFI'A .ates meeting regularly to review EFI'A !fairs and European integration. It is an nofficial forum for the exchange of iews on European problems and could e the means for ensuring that much reater attention is given to EFI'A affairs t the parliaments of the EFI'A countries . .t their meeting in September 1967 the arliamentarians agreed that eo-operaon within EFI'A should be extended. If ur suggestion for a development based n the Nordic Council or a similar body ·ere adopted, the EFI'A parliamentariansteeting might well become part of the ew grouping. le turn finally to consider ways of rengthening links between EFI'A and ther countries, both economically and olitically. EFI'A could expand in either f two ways ; by the addition of new tembers or associates, or by merging te association into a larger free trade :ea. The question of new members 'mes down to the basic issue of tradingJd other relationships between Eastern Jd Western Europe, since there are few restern European countries which are Jt members of EFI'A or EEC. If expanon of EFI'A's market within Europe is ~siraple, it must come from the develop ment of links with eastern Europeanstates. Because EFI'A is a flexible assiciation, it has some chance of attracting eastern European states into its orbit. This could take the form of trading links leading to closer contact and the break- ing-down of ba-rriers between east and west Europe. Already negotiations are in progress for a trading agreement between EFTA and Jugoslavia. In addition EFI'A could take the political lead by inviting members of eastern European parliaments to attend regular joint meetings with MPS from EFI'A states. With the growing pressure for more democratic practices in eastern Europe the scope for co-operation between Eiii'A and some of those countries could be very wide and should certainly be explored. 4. a north Atlantic trade are The other main general strategy which has been proposed as an alternative to immediate EEC membership for Britain is a free trade area straddling the North Atlantic ocean, an arrangement conveniently described as NAFTA. Most supporters of the idea of NAFTA include in this economic grouping the United States, Canada and all the countries of EFTA, so that in some respects the NAFTA strategy can be regarded as a developmentof EFTA. The proposals for NAFTA resemble the present practice of EFTA insofar as they are entirely trade proposals and would create a loose economic association of the member states without that degreeof political integration which is an essential part of the framework of EEC. But, of course, the NAFTA idea involves far more than just a European viewpoint- indeed some variants of the idea would embrace also Australia, New Zealand and Japan-and consequently the "third force" argument for closer Europeanintegration, namely that a united Europewould be a balancing force between the USA and USSR, forms no part of the case for NAFTA. On the contrary, in fact, any NAFTA arrangement would bring a large part of western Europe-sometimes the NAFTA concept is taken to embrace EEC also-far more closely into the American economic o·rbit than was the case even with the Marshall plan and lease lend. It is therefore not surprising that manyof the suggestions for NAFTA have originated from the United States, where it is seen as a further development of the various proposals for a free trade area between the United States and Canada. The most celebrated American exponentof the NAFTA concept is the liberal Republican Senator for New York State, hcob Javits, who came out in strong support of a NAFTA arrangement in a Washington speech in August 1965, on which he elaborated in London the following November. A key sentence from Senator Javits' London speech is that he regarded this alternative policy for the U nited States as "a proposal for a treatyof free trade and economic co-operation with the UK, other EEC and EFTA nations, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, and other industrialised countries of the OEDC which agree to adhere to the new rules of trade of the free trade area." Senator Javits envisaged a transitional period of twenty years in which the industrialised members of NAFTA would achieve f.ree trade in manufactured goods, and in which associated developing countries would retain protection for new industries. He also suggested that, in view of Britain's recurrent economic dif· ficulties, at first there should be specialAmerican financial support for Britain in the form of official encouragement to use long term private capital for British in· dustrial modernisation. Senator Javits' proposals had in fact been foreshadowed in 1962 by Senator Paul Douglas of Illinois and, on this side of the Atlantic, by J ames Meade, Professor of Political Economy of Cambridge Uni· versity, who put forward this suggestion, as a possible alternative to be pursued in the event of our first EEC application fail· ing; and, in 1964, by Professor Bertil Ohlin, then leader of the Swedish oppo· sition, who regarded it as a plan to be implemented should the Kennedy round negotiations end in deadlock. But their main proposals were clearly positive and can be regarded as forerunners of the more detailed ideas put forwa·rd by Sena· tor Javits. The same development has been con· tinued on a far more detailed level b) the Atlantic Trade Study Group set Uf in London as an independent and non· party group, sponsoring "a program~! of studies on the implication for Britan of taking part in the open ended, Atlan tic based, free trade area". The first o these studies, carried out by Maxwel Stamp Associates and published in No vem ber 1967, is a general analysis of th1• background of the proposals for a NAFf1 arrangement and of its implications f~ British industry. The appearance of tht study has been publicised by a numbe of British politicians who have generall" been antagonistic towards British mem bership of EEC, notably Douglas Jay, ex President of the Board of Trade. Indeec an all party group of these politician ~ ended a conference during February58, held at the Centre for International !1dies in New York University, to dis- ss NAFTA proposals and, no doubt, to Lre ideas on how steps might be taken implement them. The venue for this ~nt again emphasises that the predom- nt backing for the NAFTA idea comes 1m America. "e report of the Maxwell Stamp study1tains a mass of economic and trade tistics comparing Britain, the United , ttes, EFTA, EEC and other countries, on .ich are based projections as to what : trade creating and trade diverting 1ects of NAFTA could be for Britain. ' 1ile the study acknowledges that British lustry in NAFTA would be brought more enly face to face with American corn· :ition, the effects of this are not always:en into account in the statistical fore- ;ts, for example, when it is assumed ~4) that British trade with EFTA would t be directly affected by American 'llpetition in those countries. In the er sections of the report, there is a tistical breakdown for particular com- >dities, indicating the possible effects of FTA on individual British industries. Of Jrse the development of NAFTA would highly likely to attract further Ameri- 1 investment into this country, whether not this were given official financial :ouragement. fore attempting to evaluate the NAFTA ategy as an alternative for Britain to mediate membership of EEC, we must ;t consider how far the development of FTA is likely to "get off the ground" any case. The willingness of Britain d other EFTA countries to enter a NAFTA teme will depend very largely on the ~ree of success achieved by the pro- nents of NAFTA, although the presentitish Government has up to now re- ted NAFTA as a viable alternative to :: membership. It seems to us, how- ~r. that the first obstacle to the launch- : of NAFTA lies with the Americans :mselves, for at the present time of •rld economic stringency the American Jple are not in a free trading mood, d even the recommendations of the :nnedy round of tariff cuts have had a rough passage through Congress. It is difficult to say how far men like Senator Javits and ex-Senator Douglas carry in- fluence in the appropriate political circles in the us, although it is clear that con- siderable support from American indus- try is behind them. Furthermore, the sup- porters of NAFTA almost all include the EEC countries as members, sooner or later, of the association, which no doubt is intended to give Britain and the other EFTA countries the impression that mem- bership of NAFTA is not to be regarded as precluding membership of EEC. But it is very unlikely that the countries of EEC, constrained by the prevailing French anti-Anglo Saxon feeling and inspired by the "third force" theory, will want to have official trade links with the us with- in NAFTA. All these considerations then make the development of NAFTA, even in its initial stages, beset with difficulties. Assuming that NAFTA came into existence, including at least the us, Canada, Britain and the other present members of EFTA, it would certainly be the largest free trading unit in the world, both in terms of population and gross production. Of course, some of the trading advantagesto be obtained from NAFTA will result in any case from the Kennedy round. But Britain inside NAFTA would be part of an enormous market with incomparable op· portunities for industrial expansion and modernisation. Whether these opportuni· ties became practical possibilities or not would depend on how far British indus- try could meet and surpass the challenge of us competition in every part of that market, including Britain. More likelythan not, British manufacturers would have to specialise in certain products for which we have the competitive advantage over the Americans, although these would include only few of the "glamourproducts" of modern technology. In the words of Lord Gladwyn, speaking in the House of Lords on 2 November, 1967 : "As a broad generalisation we should find ourselves making the trouser buttons while the Americans made the comput- ers. But would that matter, because we should be part of a large and prosperouscommunity, and it might make us, col- lectively. a great force in the world." ~ ended a conference during February58, held at the Centre for International !1dies in New York University, to dis- ss NAFTA proposals and, no doubt, to Lre ideas on how steps might be taken implement them. The venue for this ~nt again emphasises that the predom- nt backing for the NAFTA idea comes 1m America. "e report of the Maxwell Stamp study1tains a mass of economic and trade tistics comparing Britain, the United , ttes, EFTA, EEC and other countries, on .ich are based projections as to what : trade creating and trade diverting 1ects of NAFTA could be for Britain. ' 1ile the study acknowledges that British lustry in NAFTA would be brought more enly face to face with American corn· :ition, the effects of this are not always:en into account in the statistical fore- ;ts, for example, when it is assumed ~4) that British trade with EFTA would t be directly affected by American 'llpetition in those countries. In the er sections of the report, there is a tistical breakdown for particular com- >dities, indicating the possible effects of FTA on individual British industries. Of Jrse the development of NAFTA would highly likely to attract further Ameri- 1 investment into this country, whether not this were given official financial :ouragement. fore attempting to evaluate the NAFTA ategy as an alternative for Britain to mediate membership of EEC, we must ;t consider how far the development of FTA is likely to "get off the ground" any case. The willingness of Britain d other EFTA countries to enter a NAFTA teme will depend very largely on the ~ree of success achieved by the pro- nents of NAFTA, although the presentitish Government has up to now re- ted NAFTA as a viable alternative to :: membership. It seems to us, how- ~r. that the first obstacle to the launch- : of NAFTA lies with the Americans :mselves, for at the present time of •rld economic stringency the American Jple are not in a free trading mood, d even the recommendations of the :nnedy round of tariff cuts have had a rough passage through Congress. It is difficult to say how far men like Senator Javits and ex-Senator Douglas carry in- fluence in the appropriate political circles in the us, although it is clear that con- siderable support from American indus- try is behind them. Furthermore, the sup- porters of NAFTA almost all include the EEC countries as members, sooner or later, of the association, which no doubt is intended to give Britain and the other EFTA countries the impression that mem- bership of NAFTA is not to be regarded as precluding membership of EEC. But it is very unlikely that the countries of EEC, constrained by the prevailing French anti-Anglo Saxon feeling and inspired by the "third force" theory, will want to have official trade links with the us with- in NAFTA. All these considerations then make the development of NAFTA, even in its initial stages, beset with difficulties. Assuming that NAFTA came into existence, including at least the us, Canada, Britain and the other present members of EFTA, it would certainly be the largest free trading unit in the world, both in terms of population and gross production. Of course, some of the trading advantagesto be obtained from NAFTA will result in any case from the Kennedy round. But Britain inside NAFTA would be part of an enormous market with incomparable op· portunities for industrial expansion and modernisation. Whether these opportuni· ties became practical possibilities or not would depend on how far British indus- try could meet and surpass the challenge of us competition in every part of that market, including Britain. More likelythan not, British manufacturers would have to specialise in certain products for which we have the competitive advantage over the Americans, although these would include only few of the "glamourproducts" of modern technology. In the words of Lord Gladwyn, speaking in the House of Lords on 2 November, 1967 : "As a broad generalisation we should find ourselves making the trouser buttons while the Americans made the comput- ers. But would that matter, because we should be part of a large and prosperouscommunity, and it might make us, col- lectively. a great force in the world." 16 The commanding heights of NAFfA's economy would largely be in American hands, which is clearly the reason for so much American support for the scheme. Moreover, it is wrong to assume that NAFfA would be a closely integrated and cohesive economic unit, at least for a very long time, as the distances between different parts of NAFfA would make it far more like the old British Empire than the developing EEC. In such a loose, scat- tered economic unit, it would be easyfor divergencies between the standards of living in different parts of the asso- ciation to grow rather than diminish. There would be little possibility of re- versing such a tendency, short of destroy- ing NAFfA, so long as NAFfA has no poli- tical content, and all the suporters of NAFfA are deliberately excluding from their proposals any means of politicalco-ordination. Consequently, any political results which might arise from NAFfA would be caused only indirectly, from the growth of free trade and the removal of non-tariff trad- ing discriminations within individual countries. In time, this might necessitate political negotiations within NAFfA on such problems as movement of labour or harmonisation of social security systems. But from its beginning, NAFfA would make each member nation less able to control its own economic policy. This might not be a serious disadvantage poli- tically if the other members of NAFfA had similar political outlooks to our own, or if no member of NAFfA had predom- inant political power compared with the others, but with the us within NAPTA neither of these conditions would hold. [ndeed, the whole of NAI'TA would be un- der the influence of undiluted, American- style capitalism, overshadowing the char- acteristics of social democracy and pub- lic enterprise at present common to Bri- tain and other EFfA countries. The scopeof British political action is alreadylargely dominated in practice by consid- erations of American policy, and NAFfA would inevitably exaggerate this tend- ency. Apart from these indirect, and negative, political consequences of free trade throughout NAFfA, the proposed schemr deliberately avoids all attempts to estab !ish common political institutions cover ing member countries; NAFfA is con ceived as an alternative to supranationalism. Short of Britain's becoming part o the us, this country would have no poli tical representation at the centre o NAFfA, which could be nowhere bu Washington. Because NAFfA would in valve no formal political co-operation be tween member countries and no estab. lishment of supranational institutions, . would be regarded by few internationa ists as an important step of progress tc wa·rds world government. The lack of political authority within NAFfA woul cause difficulties if ever a link-up wit EEC were attempted. Furthermore, the fact that NAFfA woul include the us would present an almo total barrier to closer links betwee NAFfA countries and eastern Europe; ir; deed, one wonders what would happe to the trading positions of Austria a Finland under NAFfA. In this way it aJ pears that, far f•rom being a unifyirforce between European nations, NAFJ would lead to an even more rigid divi ion of Europe with nearly complepolarisation between American capitalis and Soviet collectivism. Nor, too, is clear whether NAFfA would help bridJ or widen the gulf between the developr and underdeveloped nations of the worl and in some respects it could be regardras a club of all the Ticher, industrialisr western nations to the exclusion others. Such an impression would be ve difficult to dispel, even by the applicatirof some of the suggestions on this poi made by David Wall in a further Atla tic Trade Study pamphlet (The thi world challenge, January 1968). Thus t political effects of NAFfA, as at pres~ conceived, would be undesirable, be· within the association and in its relatic ship with other nations, particularly th~ of eastern Europe and the Afro-Asr group. There are numerous signs that NAF is going to be discussed widely in Brit political circles in the near future, for ' Atlantic Trade Study Group, with 16 The commanding heights of NAFfA's economy would largely be in American hands, which is clearly the reason for so much American support for the scheme. Moreover, it is wrong to assume that NAFfA would be a closely integrated and cohesive economic unit, at least for a very long time, as the distances between different parts of NAFfA would make it far more like the old British Empire than the developing EEC. In such a loose, scat- tered economic unit, it would be easyfor divergencies between the standards of living in different parts of the asso- ciation to grow rather than diminish. There would be little possibility of re- versing such a tendency, short of destroy- ing NAFfA, so long as NAFfA has no poli- tical content, and all the suporters of NAFfA are deliberately excluding from their proposals any means of politicalco-ordination. Consequently, any political results which might arise from NAFfA would be caused only indirectly, from the growth of free trade and the removal of non-tariff trad- ing discriminations within individual countries. In time, this might necessitate political negotiations within NAFfA on such problems as movement of labour or harmonisation of social security systems. But from its beginning, NAFfA would make each member nation less able to control its own economic policy. This might not be a serious disadvantage poli- tically if the other members of NAFfA had similar political outlooks to our own, or if no member of NAFfA had predom- inant political power compared with the others, but with the us within NAPTA neither of these conditions would hold. [ndeed, the whole of NAI'TA would be un- der the influence of undiluted, American- style capitalism, overshadowing the char- acteristics of social democracy and pub- lic enterprise at present common to Bri- tain and other EFfA countries. The scopeof British political action is alreadylargely dominated in practice by consid- erations of American policy, and NAFfA would inevitably exaggerate this tend- ency. Apart from these indirect, and negative, political consequences of free trade throughout NAFfA, the proposed schemr deliberately avoids all attempts to estab !ish common political institutions cover ing member countries; NAFfA is con ceived as an alternative to supranationalism. Short of Britain's becoming part o the us, this country would have no poli tical representation at the centre o NAFfA, which could be nowhere bu Washington. Because NAFfA would in valve no formal political co-operation be tween member countries and no estab. lishment of supranational institutions, . would be regarded by few internationa ists as an important step of progress tc wa·rds world government. The lack of political authority within NAFfA woul cause difficulties if ever a link-up wit EEC were attempted. Furthermore, the fact that NAFfA woul include the us would present an almo total barrier to closer links betwee NAFfA countries and eastern Europe; ir; deed, one wonders what would happe to the trading positions of Austria a Finland under NAFfA. In this way it aJ pears that, far f•rom being a unifyirforce between European nations, NAFJ would lead to an even more rigid divi ion of Europe with nearly complepolarisation between American capitalis and Soviet collectivism. Nor, too, is clear whether NAFfA would help bridJ or widen the gulf between the developr and underdeveloped nations of the worl and in some respects it could be regardras a club of all the Ticher, industrialisr western nations to the exclusion others. Such an impression would be ve difficult to dispel, even by the applicatirof some of the suggestions on this poi made by David Wall in a further Atla tic Trade Study pamphlet (The thi world challenge, January 1968). Thus t political effects of NAFfA, as at pres~ conceived, would be undesirable, be· within the association and in its relatic ship with other nations, particularly th~ of eastern Europe and the Afro-Asr group. There are numerous signs that NAF is going to be discussed widely in Brit political circles in the near future, for ' Atlantic Trade Study Group, with ;tinguished committee, is bound to mmand attention. It is likely that manyliticians, of different parties, will oouse the NAFrA idea as a clear altertive to Common Market membership, 1ich many of them have opposedhemently and long. Indeed, there is a 11 danger that the discussion may be- me a contest between the rival suprters of NAFrA and EEC, despite the ::ts that EEC membership does not apar to be readily available and that the FTA concept allows for eventual in- Ision of the EEC countries. But the tin objection to such a debating con: t is that it would convey the false imession that no alternative exists other m these two. And as we have been at ins to point out, there are other ernatives, possibly better ones, for itain to consider. 5. conclusions Having considered the six generalstrategies which arise as possible alternatives to full and immediate British membership of EEC, we now tackle the question of what strategy ought now to be pursued by the British Government. In this we are more conscious of the feasibility of the respective strategies in terms of practical politics, both with regard to the attitudes of other governments and how far each strategy could be based on existing institutions and arrangements. Of the various possible strategies, four involve Britain's relationship with EEC countries, whereas the other two would require a deliberate move by Britain in a direction quite apart from EEC. These two sets of strategies are mutually exclusive, at least in the foreseeable future, so the Government must make an earlychoice (the earlier the better) between European policies which involve EEC and those which do not. Otherwise an atmosphere of public apathy and confusion will prevail, both within Britain and among our friends elsewhere, which will do nothing but ha·rm to British interests. At present it appears that the EEC countries still cannot agree on what arrangements they should aim to make with Britain and the other candidate countries ; possibly the French feel that it is in their interests to keep Britain "indefinitely on a string". It may therefore be impossiblefor Britain to obtain, in the near future, the precise information which she needs to have if she is to pursue one of the policies leading to eventual full membership, or other formal arrangements, with EEC countries. However great may be the economic and political advantages to be gained by Britain from any of the four strategies involving EEC, it is pointless to continue with any of those strategieswhen any one of the six members of EEC is in long term opposition to us. It seems indisputable that the present French government, even when faced with the economic problems arising from the troubles of the early summer of 1968, will continue to oppose British participation in any formal way with EEC for as long as President de Gaulle occupies the Elysee Palace ; nor will official French attitudes necessarily change when he has gone, for both on the :right and left of French politics there are stronginfluences against British attachment to EEC. Unless there is some unexpectedchange in official French attitudes, all policies designed to lead Britain into fu11 or associated membership of EEC are "non-starters". Any attempt to harmonise British policies with EEC practice would be foolhardy in the absence of a firm guarantee of eventual full British membership of EEC. Furthermore, most aspects of British-EEC co-operation outside the provisions of the Treaty of Rome can and should be pursued regardless of our overall European strategy. So we cannot see any benefit for ·Britain at this stage in continuing actively to pursue the goal of British EEC membership in view of the lasting intransigence· of the French. We do not, on the other hand, see great benefit for Britain at this stage in going ahead with plans for a NAFTA arrangement, for there would be greatdifficulty in getting NAFTA "off the ground", in starting from scratch with an organisation of unprecendented size and complexity. The initiative for NAFTA must necessarily come from the us government, which so far has shown no more than passing interest in the project, and we think it would be pointless for the Government to act until there is an official move by the new American administration. The remaining alternative is for Britain to work for the further development and expansion of EFTA . This association has been in existence for eight years and has achieved most of what it set out originally to achieve; and EFTA's empiricalapproach to problems commends itself to us as a factor enabling further possibledevelopment along lines welcome to Britain, who shares with most other EFTA . countries similar traditions of social de· mocracy and egalitarianism. Suggestions for developing EFTA include co-ordinated trading policies with third countries, co· ordinated agricultural policies, strongei political links based on the Nordic Coun· cil and the EFTA parliamentarians' meet· ing, and the extension of EFTA member· ;hip, possibly to include eastern Europ- :an countries. In terms of practical poli- .ics, however, there is, at present, little :nthusiasm among EFrA members in gen- :ral for these measures : among other ings, only Denmark seems interested in nore agricultural co-operation, Britain 1erself would be adversely affected byncreased trade with Iceland, and events n eastern Europe during the summer of 1968 have shown that the situation there s not as flexible as might earlier have Jeen supposed. Despite the difficulties, this is the most ::>romising of the strategies and we hope :he Government will make every effort to :urther the expansion and development)f EFrA as the best available alternative :o full British membership of the Europ- :an Economic Community. ;hip, possibly to include eastern Europ- :an countries. In terms of practical poli- .ics, however, there is, at present, little :nthusiasm among EFrA members in gen- :ral for these measures : among other ings, only Denmark seems interested in nore agricultural co-operation, Britain 1erself would be adversely affected byncreased trade with Iceland, and events n eastern Europe during the summer of 1968 have shown that the situation there s not as flexible as might earlier have Jeen supposed. Despite the difficulties, this is the most ::>romising of the strategies and we hope :he Government will make every effort to :urther the expansion and development)f EFrA as the best available alternative :o full British membership of the Europ- :an Economic Community. membership Membership and associate membership of the Fabian Society costs from 30s to five pounds yearly, depending on the publications you wish to receive. All members receive Fabian News. 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Name (Mr./Mrs.jMiss): Address: Signed: Date: Send to Fabian Society (M), 11 Dartmouth Street, London, SW l. abian society lfhe Fabian Society exists to further socialist education and research. lt is affiliated to the Labour Party, both nationally and locally, and embraces all shades of Socialist opinion within its ranks-left, right and centre. Since 1884 the Fabian Society has enrolled thoughtful socialists who are prepared to discuss the essential questions of democratic socialism and relate them to practical plans for building socialism in a changing world. Beyond this the Society has no collectiw policy. It puts forward no resolutions oL a political character, but it is not an organisation of armchair socialists. Its members are active in their Labou. Parties, Trade Unions and Co-operatives. They are representative of the labour movement, practical people concerned to study and discuss problems that matter. The Society is organised nationally and locally. The national Society, directed by an elected Executive Committee, publishes pamphlets, and holds schools and conferences of many kinds. Local Societies- there are a hundred of them-are self governing and are lively centres of discussion and also undertake research. Enquiries about membership should be sent to the General Secretary, Fabian Society, 11 Dartmouth Street, London, SW!; telephone 01-930 3077. the authors Eric Deakins is a senior executive with an agricultural marketing firm . After fighting three PaTliamentary elections, he is now prospective Labour candidate for West Walthamstow. He has written two books: a novel as yet unpublished, and A faith to fight for (Gollancz). Edmund Marshall is a mathematician employed in industrial operations research by an international company. He contested the last two general elections as a Liberal at Louth. His political allegiance moved to Labour in the Autumn of 1966. He is now national Treasurer of the Christian Socialist Movement. 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